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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Kenilworth weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Kenilworth today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 11°, with a 74% chance of rain.

15°6°
11°8°
16°7°
16°9°
15°8°
12°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
11°
Heavy drizzle
Feels 6° · Wind 19 mph · Humidity 92%
EuropeanECMWF
10°
Heavy drizzle
Feels 5° · Wind 21 mph · Humidity 94%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Drizzle
Feels 4° · Wind 26 mph · Humidity 89%

Latest for Kenilworth: Met Office (UKMO model): 11° Heavy drizzle · European (ECMWF): 10° Heavy drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 11° Drizzle.

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Kenilworth weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for West Midlands

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Kenilworth weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Kenilworth swings 20°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 1°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 726 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 14 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 33 frost nights, and rain on 141 days.

Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
726 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
22,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
99/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
14 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
33 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
141 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Kenilworth’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Kenilworth and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kenilworth hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kenilworth 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
15° 6°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
11° 8°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
16° 7°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
16° 9°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
12° 8°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Sat
Heavy drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Sun
Partly cloudy
11° 5°
±3°
Mon
Partly cloudy
11° 5°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
10° 5°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
8° 2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
7° 2°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
8° 2°
±4°

Kenilworth, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 726 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Kenilworth right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Kenilworth climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
1°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
12°
5°
May
15°
7°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
21°
12°
Sep
17°
10°
Oct
14°
8°
Nov
10°
4°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Kenilworth has changed since 1995

Kenilworth sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Birmingham. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Birmingham page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Kenilworth?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
99
/100rank #1
97±0.2°C99±0.4 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
84
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C96±1.2 mph6581% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
90±0.5°C91±2.7 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree11° to 11°±36%38% to 74% chance
Monmodels agree16° to 16°±14%86% to 100% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±42%58% to 100% chance
Wed±1°14° to 15°±19%14% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kenilworth

today, local time
Sunrise
07:47
Sunset
17:52
Daylight
10h 5m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kenilworth today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Kenilworth today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 11°, with a 74% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kenilworth today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Kenilworth on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 67%, European 38%, American 74%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kenilworth?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kenilworth (CheckWeather Score 99/100), ahead of the Met Office at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kenilworth?
August is typically the warmest month in Kenilworth, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Kenilworth get?
The coldest month in Kenilworth is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Kenilworth get?
Kenilworth sees roughly 726 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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