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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Herne Bay weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Herne Bay today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 15°, with a 100% chance of rain.

16°6°
15°9°
16°8°
17°10°
15°8°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
12°
Drizzle
Feels 8° · Wind 13 mph · Humidity 88%
EuropeanECMWF
12°
Heavy drizzle
Feels 9° · Wind 13 mph · Humidity 83%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Light drizzle
Feels 8° · Wind 15 mph · Humidity 89%

Latest for Herne Bay: Met Office (UKMO model): 12° Drizzle · European (ECMWF): 12° Heavy drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 11° Light drizzle.

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Herne Bay weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Herne Bay weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Herne Bay swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in July to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 623 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 15 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 13 frost nights, and rain on 137 days.

Warmest month
July
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
623 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
25,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
96/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
15 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
13 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
137 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Herne Bay’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Herne Bay and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Herne Bay hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Herne Bay 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
16° 6°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
15° 9°
±3°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
16° 8°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
17° 10°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
15° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13° 8°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
14° 10°
±2°
Sat
Drizzle
12° 9°
±2°
Sun
Light drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
12° 5°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
13° 8°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
11° 6°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
9° 4°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
9° 4°
models agree

Herne Bay, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 623 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Herne Bay right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Herne Bay climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
2°
Feb
8°
3°
Mar
10°
4°
Apr
12°
6°
May
15°
9°
Jun
19°
11°
Jul
21°
14°
Aug
21°
14°
Sep
19°
12°
Oct
16°
10°
Nov
11°
6°
Dec
9°
5°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Herne Bay has changed since 1995

Herne Bay sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Saint Peters. That square ran 0.7°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Saint Peters page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Herne Bay?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C96±1.2 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
93
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C95±1.7 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
89
/100rank #3
90±0.5°C97±1.0 mph8290% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±3°13° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±1°16° to 17°±32%68% to 100% chance
Tue±1°16° to 17°±61%39% to 100% chance
Wedmodels agree15° to 15°±30%3% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Herne Bay

today, local time
Sunrise
07:34
Sunset
17:43
Daylight
10h 9m

Common questions

What's the weather in Herne Bay today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Herne Bay today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 15°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Herne Bay today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Herne Bay on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (Met Office 100%, European 100%, American 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Herne Bay?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Herne Bay (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 93. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Herne Bay?
July is typically the warmest month in Herne Bay, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Herne Bay get?
The coldest month in Herne Bay is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Herne Bay get?
Herne Bay sees roughly 623 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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