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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Chislehurst weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Chislehurst today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain.

15°7°
14°8°
16°8°
16°10°
15°8°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±2°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±2°
Met OfficeUKMO model
16°
Rain
Today 16°·Low 7°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Rain
Today 15°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Rain
Today 16°·Low 7°·Rain 100%
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Chislehurst weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Chislehurst weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Chislehurst swings 20°C across the year, from 22°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 666 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 18 days a year at 25°C or above, 3 of them at 30°C or above, 25 frost nights, and rain on 135 days.

Warmest month
August
22°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
666 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
16,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
91/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
18 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
25 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
135 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Chislehurst’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Chislehurst and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Chislehurst hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Chislehurst 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
15° 7°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
14° 8°
±2°
Mon
Drizzle
16° 8°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13° 8°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
14° 9°
models agree
Sat
Heavy drizzle
12° 7°
±3°
Sun
Drizzle
11° 6°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
11° 5°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
12° 7°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
11° 5°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
8° 3°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
9° 2°
models agree

Chislehurst, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 666 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Chislehurst right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Chislehurst climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
2°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
10°
4°
Apr
13°
6°
May
16°
8°
Jun
20°
10°
Jul
21°
13°
Aug
22°
14°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
14°
8°
Nov
11°
5°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Chislehurst has changed since 1995

Chislehurst sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as London. That square ran 0.7°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the London page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Chislehurst?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C96±1.1 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
90
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C97±1.0 mph8290% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #3
93±0.4°C89±3.5 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°12° to 14°±33%67% to 100% chance
Mon±1°16° to 17°±25%75% to 100% chance
Tue±1°16° to 16°±59%41% to 100% chance
Wed±1°15° to 15°±33%0% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Chislehurst

today, local time
Sunrise
07:38
Sunset
17:48
Daylight
10h 10m

Common questions

What's the weather in Chislehurst today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Chislehurst today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Chislehurst today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Chislehurst on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 67% (Met Office 67%, European 92%, American 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Chislehurst?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Chislehurst (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the Met Office at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Chislehurst?
August is typically the warmest month in Chislehurst, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Chislehurst get?
The coldest month in Chislehurst is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Chislehurst get?
Chislehurst sees roughly 666 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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