Carlisle weather
Loading live data…Rain,rain likely tomorrow
Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 12° in Carlisle today. Tomorrow: rain, around 10°, with a 100% chance of rain.
Latest for Carlisle: Met Office (UKMO model): 10° Drizzle · European (ECMWF): 9° Light rain · American (NOAA GFS): 10° Rain.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Carlisle weather warnings
Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for North East EnglandChecking the Met Office for warnings in force for North East England…
Carlisle weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherCarlisle swings 16°C across the year, from 18°C highs in June to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1109 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 4 days a year at 25°C or above, 38 frost nights, and rain on 190 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Carlisle’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Met Office, European, American side by side around Carlisle and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Carlisle hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Carlisle 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitCarlisle, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1109 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Carlisle right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.
Carlisle climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Carlisle's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Carlisle, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −0.1°C | +10 | +5% |
| 1996 | −1.0°C | +41 | +1% |
| 1997 | +0.3°C | −10 | −3% |
| 1998 | ±0.0°C | −7 | +7% |
| 1999 | +0.2°C | −6 | +7% |
| 2000 | −0.1°C | −8 | +1% |
| 2001 | −0.5°C | +24 | −6% |
| 2002 | +0.1°C | −11 | −1% |
| 2003 | +0.3°C | −1 | −4% |
| 2004 | +0.3°C | −4 | −1% |
| 2005 | +0.3°C | +1 | +3% |
| 2006 | +0.5°C | −0 | −1% |
| 2007 | +0.3°C | −22 | +1% |
| 2008 | −0.1°C | +7 | +7% |
| 2009 | −0.1°C | +1 | +1% |
| 2010 | −1.3°C | +59 | −12% |
| 2011 | +0.2°C | −12 | +1% |
| 2012 | −0.6°C | +2 | −4% |
| 2013 | −0.6°C | +32 | +3% |
| 2014 | +0.6°C | −33 | −1% |
| 2015 | −0.3°C | −7 | +7% |
| 2016 | −0.2°C | +12 | −4% |
| 2017 | +0.1°C | −2 | +1% |
| 2018 | +0.1°C | +1 | −1% |
| 2019 | +0.1°C | −10 | −3% |
| 2020 | +0.3°C | −25 | +9% |
| 2021 | +0.2°C | +9 | −12% |
| 2022 | +0.9°C | −10 | +1% |
| 2023 | +0.8°C | −10 | −3% |
| 2024 | +0.6°C | −20 | +1% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Carlisle, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Carlisle?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.