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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Waterloo weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 16° in Waterloo today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 2% chance of rain.

16°12°
17°13°
16°13°
16°10°
16°9°
18°11°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
13°
Mainly clear
Feels 10° · Wind 22 km/h · Humidity 96%
AmericanNOAA GFS
13°
Mainly clear
Feels 11° · Wind 18 km/h · Humidity 89%
GermanDWD ICON
14°
Partly cloudy
Feels 11° · Wind 28 km/h · Humidity 89%

Latest for Waterloo: European (ECMWF): 13° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 13° Mainly clear · German (DWD ICON): 14° Partly cloudy.

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Waterloo weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Waterloo swings 14°C across the year, from 20°C highs in January to 6°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1294 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
20°C average high
Coldest month
July
6°C average low
Wettest month
July
1294 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
5,950
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Waterloo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Waterloo hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Waterloo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
16° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 13°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
16° 13°
models agree
Tue
Heavy rain
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 9°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 11°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
15° 10°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
18° 9°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
16° 9°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
14° 9°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 9°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 7°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
21° 8°
models agree

Waterloo, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 6°C), with roughly 1294 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Waterloo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Waterloo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
20°
14°
Feb
20°
15°
Mar
19°
14°
Apr
17°
12°
May
15°
10°
Jun
13°
7°
Jul
12°
6°
Aug
12°
7°
Sep
13°
8°
Oct
15°
10°
Nov
17°
11°
Dec
18°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Waterloo has changed since 1995

Waterloo sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Lower Hutt. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Lower Hutt page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Waterloo?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
G
German ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C94±3.2 km/h8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
80±1.1°C84±7.8 km/h8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
82
/100rank #3
81±1.1°C90±5.0 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°16° to 17°±65%0% to 65% chance
Tomorrow±1°16° to 17°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°±85%3% to 88% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±9%91% to 100% chance
Wed±1°16° to 17°±19%9% to 28% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Waterloo

today, local time
Sunrise
06:18
Sunset
19:51
Daylight
13h 33m

Common questions

What's the weather in Waterloo today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 16° in Waterloo today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 2% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Waterloo today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Waterloo on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 2% (European 2%, American 0%, German 0%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 65%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Waterloo?
Over the last 30 days, the German model has been the most accurate for Waterloo (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Waterloo?
January is typically the warmest month in Waterloo, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Waterloo get?
The coldest month in Waterloo is July, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Waterloo get?
Waterloo sees roughly 1294 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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