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Paraparaumu weekend weather

This weekend in Paraparaumu, New Zealand, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 14° across the weekend. Agreement is low - the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 92% on at least one model. The models agree closely on temperature but split badly on rain (58 points apart), so the rain call is the uncertain part.

Today

2026-09-19 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Drizzle
High 15°·Low ·Rain 73%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Fog
High 14°·Low ·Rain 19%
GermanDWD ICON
14°
Light rain
High 14°·Low ·Rain 15%

All 3 models land within 1° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Tomorrow

2026-09-20 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Drizzle
High 14°·Low ·Rain 84%
AmericanNOAA GFS
13°
Heavy drizzle
High 13°·Low ·Rain 92%
GermanDWD ICON
12°
Showers
High 12°·Low ·Rain 78%

All 3 models land within 1° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°14° to 15°±58%15% to 73% chance
Tomorrow±1°12° to 14°±14%78% to 92% chance
Mon±2°12° to 14°±35%0% to 35% chance
Tue±1°13° to 14°±19%81% to 100% chance
Wed±1°10° to 10°±22%58% to 80% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 92%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers - when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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