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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Papatoetoe weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 20° in Papatoetoe today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 18°, with a 19% chance of rain.

20°10°
18°12°
20°11°
19°12°
17°11°
18°12°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
12°
Overcast
Feels 11° · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 90%
AmericanNOAA GFS
13°
Overcast
Feels 13° · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 76%
GermanDWD ICON
13°
Partly cloudy
Feels 13° · Wind 2 km/h · Humidity 92%

Latest for Papatoetoe: European (ECMWF): 12° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 13° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 13° Partly cloudy.

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Papatoetoe weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Papatoetoe swings 15°C across the year, from 23°C highs in February to 8°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1212 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
23°C average high
Coldest month
July
8°C average low
Wettest month
July
1212 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
56,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Papatoetoe and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Papatoetoe hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Papatoetoe 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
18° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20° 11°
models agree
Tue
Showers
19° 12°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
17° 13°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
18° 12°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
19° 15°
±3°
Tue
Light rain
17° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 11°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
18° 11°
models agree

Papatoetoe, New Zealand. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Papatoetoe right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Papatoetoe's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Papatoetoe weather by month

what to expect in Papatoetoe through the year, 1991-2020 averages

Here is Papatoetoe's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Papatoetoe by season.

Jan
22°
16°
Warm
Feb
23°
17°
Warm
Mar
22°
15°
Warm
Apr
20°
14°
Mild
May
17°
12°
Mild
Jun
16°
10°
Mild
Jul
13°
8°
Cool
Wettest
Aug
15°
8°
Mild
Sep
15°
10°
Mild
Oct
16°
11°
Mild
Nov
18°
12°
Mild
Dec
21°
15°
Mild

What Papatoetoe's weather is like through the year

Papatoetoe runs from warm summers, with February highs near 23°C, to cool winters, when July lows sit around 8°C (a swing of about 15°C across the year). July is usually the wettest month, and Papatoetoe sees roughly 1212 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Papatoetoe

The most comfortable time to visit Papatoetoe is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.

How the weather around Papatoetoe has changed since 1995

Papatoetoe sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Auckland. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Auckland page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Papatoetoe?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C96±1.8 km/h8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
85
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C95±2.7 km/h7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
84
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C95±2.3 km/h7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the American model has been the most accurate forecast for Papatoetoe, scoring 88/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the German at 85. See the full NZ accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°20° to 20°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree18° to 18°±19%0% to 19% chance
Mon±1°20° to 20°±20%0% to 20% chance
Tue±2°18° to 20°±3%97% to 100% chance
Wed±1°17° to 18°±22%22% to 44% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Papatoetoe

today, local time
Sunrise
06:24
Sunset
19:44
Daylight
13h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Papatoetoe today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 20° in Papatoetoe today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 18°, with a 19% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Papatoetoe today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Papatoetoe on Sunday 25 October: no model gives more than 19% (European 19%, American 0%, German 3%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Papatoetoe?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Papatoetoe (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the German at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Papatoetoe?
February is typically the warmest month in Papatoetoe, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Papatoetoe get?
The coldest month in Papatoetoe is July, when overnight lows average about 8°C.
How much rain does Papatoetoe get?
Papatoetoe sees roughly 1212 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Papatoetoe?
The most comfortable time to visit Papatoetoe is usually January, February, March and April, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Papatoetoe?
Rarely - Papatoetoe very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

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