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North East Valley weekend weather

This weekend in North East Valley, New Zealand, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 11° across the weekend. Agreement is low — the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 100% on at least one model. The models agree closely on temperature but split badly on rain (85 points apart), so the rain call is the uncertain part.

Sat

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
Light snow
High ·Low ·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
Snow showers
High ·Low ·Rain 74%
GermanDWD ICON
10°
Light rain
High 10°·Low ·Rain 15%

All 3 models land within 1° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
13°
Cloudy
High 13°·Low ·Rain 10%
AmericanNOAA GFS
12°
Light drizzle
High 12°·Low ·Rain 29%
GermanDWD ICON
14°
Light rain
High 14°·Low ·Rain 8%

All 3 models land within 2° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°12° to 14°±10%0% to 10% chance
Tomorrow±2°9° to 11°models agree100% to 100% chance
Sat±1°8° to 10°±85%15% to 100% chance
Sun±2°12° to 14°±21%8% to 29% chance
Mon±2°11° to 12°±12%41% to 53% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 100%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers — when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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