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Every New Zealand forecast, compared
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CheckWeather NZNgaio
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Ngaio weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 14° in Ngaio today. Tomorrow looks rain around 11°, with a 100% chance of rain.

14°12°
11°
12°
13°
12°
13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±4°
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Rain
Today 14°·Low 11°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Showers
Today 14°·Low 12°·Rain 100%
GermanDWD ICON
14°
Showers
Today 14°·Low 13°·Rain 98%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Ngaio and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
14° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
11°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
12°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
13°
±2°
Thu
Light drizzle
12°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
13°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
13°
±4°
Sun
Mostly clear
12°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
13°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
14° 11°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
13°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
12°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
12°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
13°
models agree

Ngaio, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 7°C), with roughly 1003 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Ngaio right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Ngaio climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
21°
15°
Feb
20°
15°
Mar
18°
13°
Apr
17°
12°
May
15°
10°
Jun
13°
Jul
12°
Aug
12°
Sep
14°
Oct
15°
10°
Nov
16°
11°
Dec
18°
14°

Which forecast is most accurate in Ngaio?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C91±4.7 km/t7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
83
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C92±3.9 km/t6581% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
81
/100rank #3
92±0.4°C95±2.4 km/t5877% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 237 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°14° to 14°±2%98% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±3°10° to 13°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tue±1°11° to 12°±6%4% to 10% chance
Wed±2°12° to 14°±4%0% to 4% chance
Thu±1°11° to 13°±31%55% to 86% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ngaio

today, local time
Sunrise
06:38
Sunset
18:01
Daylight
11h 23m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ngaio today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Ngaio today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ngaio today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Ngaio and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ngaio?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Ngaio (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the German at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ngaio?
January is typically the warmest month in Ngaio, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Ngaio get?
The coldest month in Ngaio is August, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Ngaio get?
Ngaio sees roughly 1003 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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