Weather in Nelson tomorrow
Tomorrow's forecast for Nelson, New Zealand from every major model, so you can see whether they agree before you plan around it.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow in this area the models centre on about 11°. Model agreement is low — treat any single number with suspicion. Rain chance runs as high as 92% on at least one model. The models agree closely on temperature but split badly on rain (77 points apart), so the rain call is the uncertain part.
Tomorrow
2026-07-31 — every model, side by sideEuropeanECMWF
11°
Drizzle
AmericanNOAA GFS
10°
Snow showers
GermanDWD ICON
12°
Cloudy
All 3 models land within 2° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Common questions
Will it rain tomorrow?
At least one model puts the chance of rain as high as 92% tomorrow. When the models disagree on rain the shower is genuinely uncertain, which is exactly what a single blended percentage hides from you.
How accurate is a one-day forecast?
A one-day-ahead forecast is the most reliable one you will get — in our own testing, temperature error at 24 hours is well under half what it is at seven days. That is why tomorrow's forecast is worth trusting when the models agree, and worth questioning when they do not.