Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 3°C
Trail weather
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Cloudy,warmer tomorrow
Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Trail's high today between 11° and 14°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 15% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.
Trail swings 36°C across the year, from 30°C highs in July to -6°C lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 647 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
July
30°C average high
Coldest month
January
-6°C average low
Wettest month
December
647 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
3 months
May, June and September
Residents
7,920
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The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Trail and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Trail hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Trail 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
12°3°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
16°5°
±5°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
15°5°
±5°
Tue
Light drizzle
11°6°
±6°
Wed
Light rain
8°5°
±3°
Thu
Rain
8°4°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
6°1°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
6°0°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
7°0°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
10°0°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
8°0°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
9°1°
±4°
Thu
Light drizzle
7°5°
±3°
Trail, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 30°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -6°C), with roughly 647 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Trail right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
2°
-6°
Feb
4°
-5°
Mar
10°
-3°
Apr
14°
2°
May
20°
6°
Jun
23°
9°
Jul
30°
13°
Aug
30°
15°
Sep
24°
10°
Oct
15°
4°
Nov
6°
0°
Dec
0°
-6°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Trail's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C
Around Trail, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.5°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 30°C
3 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
7 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >30°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.2°C
−9
−9
−1%
1996
−2.0°C
−5
+14
+6%
1997
−0.8°C
−8
+8
−1%
1998
+1.2°C
+5
−11
−7%
1999
−0.3°C
−8
+9
+6%
2000
−0.9°C
−5
+11
−1%
2001
+0.4°C
+4
+4
+6%
2002
−0.2°C
−4
+7
−1%
2003
+0.7°C
+11
−2
−1%
2004
+0.9°C
+9
−8
−1%
2005
±0.0°C
−3
−11
−1%
2006
+0.5°C
+1
+1
−1%
2007
+0.1°C
+2
−3
−1%
2008
−0.5°C
+1
+12
−1%
2009
−0.8°C
+0
+21
−1%
2010
−0.1°C
−7
+1
−1%
2011
−1.0°C
−7
+11
−1%
2012
+0.2°C
−5
−2
+6%
2013
−0.4°C
−2
+5
−7%
2014
±0.0°C
−4
−15
−1%
2015
+1.5°C
+1
−23
−1%
2016
+0.7°C
−7
−30
−1%
2017
−0.5°C
−1
+12
−1%
2018
±0.0°C
−1
+3
−1%
2019
−0.6°C
−5
+9
−1%
2020
±0.0°C
−1
+5
+6%
2021
+1.0°C
+20
−12
+6%
2022
±0.0°C
+6
+1
−1%
2023
+0.9°C
+1
−13
−7%
2024
+0.7°C
+10
−2
−1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Trail, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Trail?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C
97±1.7 km/h
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
85
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C
96±1.9 km/h
7687% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American
82
/100rank #3
77±1.3°C
89±5.3 km/h
8290% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±3°11° to 14°
±7%0% to 7% chance
Tomorrow
±5°13° to 18°
±11%4% to 15% chance
Mon
±5°12° to 17°
±15%23% to 38% chance
Tue
±6°8° to 14°
±22%30% to 52% chance
Wed
±3°6° to 9°
±9%64% to 73% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Trail
today, local time
Sunrise
07:25
Sunset
17:43
Daylight
10h 18m
Common questions
What's the weather in Trail today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Trail's high today between 11° and 14°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 15% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Trail today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Trail on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 15% (Env. Canada 15%, European 6%, American 4%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 7%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Trail?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Trail (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Trail?
July is typically the warmest month in Trail, with average highs around 30°C.
How cold does Trail get?
The coldest month in Trail is January, when overnight lows average about -6°C.
How much rain does Trail get?
Trail sees roughly 647 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Trail getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Trail, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.5°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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