Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 2°C
Nelson weather
Loading live data…
Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow
Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Nelson's high today between 10° and 13°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 14°, with a 76% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.
Nelson swings 33°C across the year, from 28°C highs in July to -5°C lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 914 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
July
28°C average high
Coldest month
January
-5°C average low
Wettest month
December
914 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
3 months
May, June and September
Residents
11,000
share this forecast
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Nelson and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…
Nelson hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
Loading the three models…
Nelson 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
11°4°
±2°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
14°6°
±6°
Mon
Drizzle
14°5°
±6°
Tue
Drizzle
11°6°
±6°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
8°5°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
8°4°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
6°2°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
5°-1°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
7°-1°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
11°1°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
9°2°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
10°2°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
8°5°
±3°
Nelson, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 28°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -5°C), with roughly 914 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Nelson right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
1°
-5°
Feb
4°
-4°
Mar
9°
-2°
Apr
14°
3°
May
19°
6°
Jun
22°
10°
Jul
28°
14°
Aug
28°
15°
Sep
22°
11°
Oct
14°
5°
Nov
7°
2°
Dec
1°
-4°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Nelson's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.1°C
Around Nelson, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.1°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
4 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
±0.0°C
−11
+5
+0%
1996
−1.9°C
−5
+8
+0%
1997
−0.4°C
−14
+5
+0%
1998
+1.4°C
+13
−20
−7%
1999
−0.3°C
−15
+8
+7%
2000
−0.6°C
−9
+5
+0%
2001
+0.5°C
+13
+1
+7%
2002
±0.0°C
+0
+11
+0%
2003
+0.8°C
+18
−7
+0%
2004
+0.9°C
+9
−7
+0%
2005
−0.1°C
−6
−11
+0%
2006
+0.7°C
+13
+2
+0%
2007
−0.1°C
+4
+2
+0%
2008
−0.5°C
+0
+5
+0%
2009
−0.7°C
+9
+17
+0%
2010
−0.1°C
−6
+0
+0%
2011
−1.2°C
−8
+8
+7%
2012
±0.0°C
−4
−1
+0%
2013
−0.5°C
−9
+6
−7%
2014
−0.2°C
−7
−13
+0%
2015
+1.1°C
+0
−20
−7%
2016
+0.5°C
−10
−24
+0%
2017
−0.5°C
+4
+10
+0%
2018
−0.1°C
−3
+5
+0%
2019
−0.7°C
−13
+6
+0%
2020
−0.2°C
−10
+4
+0%
2021
+0.6°C
+21
+0
+7%
2022
±0.0°C
+8
−4
+0%
2023
+0.8°C
+1
−18
−7%
2024
+0.4°C
+6
+8
+0%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Nelson, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Nelson?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
98
/100rank #1
97±0.2°C
98±0.9 km/h
100100% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
88
/100rank #2
79±1.2°C
94±2.9 km/h
9597% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American
86
/100rank #3
79±1.2°C
93±3.3 km/h
8994% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±2°10° to 13°
±48%9% to 57% chance
Tomorrow
±6°11° to 17°
±71%5% to 76% chance
Mon
±6°10° to 16°
±32%21% to 53% chance
Tue
±6°8° to 14°
±38%29% to 67% chance
Wed
±1°8° to 9°
±18%64% to 82% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Nelson
today, local time
Sunrise
07:25
Sunset
17:40
Daylight
10h 15m
Common questions
What's the weather in Nelson today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Nelson's high today between 10° and 13°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 14°, with a 76% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Nelson today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Nelson on Sunday, October 25: Env. Canada 76%, European 25%, American 5%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 57%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Nelson?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Nelson (CheckWeather Score 98/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Nelson?
July is typically the warmest month in Nelson, with average highs around 28°C.
How cold does Nelson get?
The coldest month in Nelson is January, when overnight lows average about -5°C.
How much rain does Nelson get?
Nelson sees roughly 914 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Nelson getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Nelson, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.1°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.
