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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Stephenville weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 7° in Stephenville today. Tomorrow: clear, around 10°, with a 0% chance of rain.

7°-1°
10°4°
9°6°
7°3°
4°2°
7°3°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
-1°
Clear
Feels -4° · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 78%
EuropeanECMWF
1°
Partly cloudy
Feels -3° · Wind 9 km/h · Humidity 71%
AmericanNOAA GFS
1°
Overcast
Feels -3° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 70%

Latest for Stephenville: Env. Canada (GEM model): -1° Clear · European (ECMWF): 1° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 1° Overcast.

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Stephenville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Stephenville swings 29°C across the year, from 20°C highs in August to -9°C lows in February, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1425 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
20°C average high
Coldest month
February
-9°C average low
Wettest month
December
1425 mm a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, April and December
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
6,540
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Stephenville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Stephenville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Stephenville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
7° -1°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
10° 4°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
9° 6°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
7° 3°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
4° 2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
7° 3°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
8° 4°
models agree
Sat
Light snow
7° 3°
±2°
Sun
Light drizzle
5° 1°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
9° 3°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
12° 7°
±7°
Wed
Light rain
12° 9°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
11° 5°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
6° 2°
±5°

Stephenville, Newfoundland and Labrador is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -9°C), with roughly 1425 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Stephenville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Stephenville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-2°
-8°
Feb
-3°
-9°
Mar
0°
-6°
Apr
5°
-1°
May
10°
3°
Jun
16°
9°
Jul
19°
13°
Aug
20°
14°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
10°
5°
Nov
5°
1°
Dec
0°
-5°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Stephenville's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.6°C

Around Stephenville, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.6°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −1.0°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average1997: −1.5°C vs the 30-year average1998: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2001: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2002: −1.3°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average2004: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2005: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2007: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2008: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2009: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2010: +1.1°C vs the 30-year average2011: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2012: +1.3°C vs the 30-year average2013: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2014: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average2016: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2017: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2018: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2019: −1.2°C vs the 30-year average2020: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2021: +1.2°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2024: +1.4°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Frost nights

6 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +6 vs the 30-year average1996: +1 vs the 30-year average1997: +16 vs the 30-year average1998: +6 vs the 30-year average1999: −12 vs the 30-year average2000: +1 vs the 30-year average2001: +13 vs the 30-year average2002: +19 vs the 30-year average2003: +3 vs the 30-year average2004: +11 vs the 30-year average2005: −2 vs the 30-year average2006: −9 vs the 30-year average2007: +7 vs the 30-year average2008: −8 vs the 30-year average2009: +0 vs the 30-year average2010: −45 vs the 30-year average2011: −8 vs the 30-year average2012: −12 vs the 30-year average2013: +0 vs the 30-year average2014: +7 vs the 30-year average2015: +15 vs the 30-year average2016: −1 vs the 30-year average2017: +9 vs the 30-year average2018: +12 vs the 30-year average2019: +10 vs the 30-year average2020: +12 vs the 30-year average2021: −31 vs the 30-year average2022: −7 vs the 30-year average2023: −6 vs the 30-year average2024: −15 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −5% vs the 30-year average1996: −0% vs the 30-year average1997: −2% vs the 30-year average1998: −0% vs the 30-year average1999: +2% vs the 30-year average2000: +2% vs the 30-year average2001: −5% vs the 30-year average2002: −0% vs the 30-year average2003: −0% vs the 30-year average2004: −0% vs the 30-year average2005: −2% vs the 30-year average2006: −5% vs the 30-year average2007: +2% vs the 30-year average2008: −0% vs the 30-year average2009: −0% vs the 30-year average2010: −0% vs the 30-year average2011: +2% vs the 30-year average2012: −0% vs the 30-year average2013: +5% vs the 30-year average2014: −0% vs the 30-year average2015: +2% vs the 30-year average2016: −0% vs the 30-year average2017: +2% vs the 30-year average2018: +7% vs the 30-year average2019: −0% vs the 30-year average2020: −0% vs the 30-year average2021: −0% vs the 30-year average2022: +2% vs the 30-year average2023: −5% vs the 30-year average2024: −5% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.0°C+6−5%
1996−0.4°C+1−0%
1997−1.5°C+16−2%
1998−0.1°C+6−0%
1999+0.8°C−12+2%
2000−0.1°C+1+2%
2001±0.0°C+13−5%
2002−1.3°C+19−0%
2003−0.7°C+3−0%
2004−0.6°C+11−0%
2005±0.0°C−2−2%
2006+0.8°C−9−5%
2007−0.5°C+7+2%
2008+0.3°C−8−0%
2009−0.4°C+0−0%
2010+1.1°C−45−0%
2011+0.4°C−8+2%
2012+1.3°C−12−0%
2013+0.1°C+0+5%
2014−0.3°C+7−0%
2015−0.9°C+15+2%
2016−0.1°C−1−0%
2017±0.0°C+9+2%
2018−0.6°C+12+7%
2019−1.2°C+10−0%
2020−0.1°C+12−0%
2021+1.2°C−31−0%
2022+0.8°C−7+2%
2023+0.8°C−6−5%
2024+1.4°C−15−5%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Stephenville, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Stephenville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C92±4.1 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
86
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C94±2.9 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
76
/100rank #3
70±1.7°C92±4.2 km/h7184% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°6° to 7°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tomorrow±1°9° to 10°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±1°9° to 9°±13%43% to 56% chance
Tue±2°6° to 8°±33%16% to 49% chance
Wed±1°4° to 5°±23%10% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Stephenville

today, local time
Sunrise
07:58
Sunset
18:18
Daylight
10h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Stephenville today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 7° in Stephenville today. Tomorrow: clear, around 10°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Stephenville today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Stephenville on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (Env. Canada 0%, European 0%, American 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 3%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Stephenville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Stephenville (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Stephenville?
August is typically the warmest month in Stephenville, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Stephenville get?
The coldest month in Stephenville is February, when overnight lows average about -9°C.
How much rain does Stephenville get?
Stephenville sees roughly 1425 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Stephenville getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Stephenville, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.6°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

More CA weather