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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Smiths Falls weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Smiths Falls today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 0% chance of rain.

14°-2°
16°0°
13°4°
7°-1°
9°-2°
16°4°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
4°
Clear
Feels 2° · Wind 1 km/h · Humidity 69%
EuropeanECMWF
5°
Clear
Feels 2° · Wind 3 km/h · Humidity 64%
AmericanNOAA GFS
0°
Partly cloudy
Feels -2° · Wind 1 km/h · Humidity 87%

Latest for Smiths Falls: Env. Canada (GEM model): 4° Clear · European (ECMWF): 5° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 0° Partly cloudy.

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Smiths Falls weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Smiths Falls swings 39°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -13°C lows in February, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 905 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
February
-13°C average low
Wettest month
September
905 mm a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
8,885
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Smiths Falls and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Smiths Falls hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Smiths Falls 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
14° -2°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
16° 0°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
13° 4°
±5°
Tue
Partly cloudy
7° -1°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
9° -2°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
16° 4°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
15° 6°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
13° 5°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
16° 6°
±3°
Mon
Light rain
14° 7°
±2°
Tue
Light snow
13° 3°
±3°
Wed
Light snow
6° 0°
±3°
Thu
Drizzle
10° 0°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
7° 0°
±3°

Smiths Falls, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -13°C), with roughly 905 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Smiths Falls right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Smiths Falls climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-4°
-11°
Feb
-3°
-13°
Mar
3°
-7°
Apr
11°
0°
May
19°
8°
Jun
23°
13°
Jul
26°
17°
Aug
24°
15°
Sep
21°
11°
Oct
13°
6°
Nov
6°
-1°
Dec
-1°
-7°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Smiths Falls has changed since 1995

Smiths Falls sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Mississippi Mills. That square ran 1.0°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Mississippi Mills page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Smiths Falls?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
EC
Env. Canada ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
83±0.9°C94±3.2 km/h100100% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
European logo
European
88
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C98±1.1 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
81±1.1°C96±2.0 km/h6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°13° to 14°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°16° to 17°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±5°11° to 15°±64%10% to 74% chance
Tuemodels agree7° to 7°±1%0% to 1% chance
Wed±1°9° to 10°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Smiths Falls

today, local time
Sunrise
07:31
Sunset
18:04
Daylight
10h 33m

Common questions

What's the weather in Smiths Falls today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Smiths Falls today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Smiths Falls today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Smiths Falls on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (Env. Canada 0%, European 0%, American 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Smiths Falls?
Over the last 30 days, the Env. Canada model has been the most accurate for Smiths Falls (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the European at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Smiths Falls?
July is typically the warmest month in Smiths Falls, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Smiths Falls get?
The coldest month in Smiths Falls is February, when overnight lows average about -13°C.
How much rain does Smiths Falls get?
Smiths Falls sees roughly 905 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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