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CheckWeather CASmiths Falls
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 2°C

Smiths Falls weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Smiths Falls's high today between 22° and 24°, a 2° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 24°, with a 2% chance of rain.

23°13°
24°13°
21°15°
21°16°
22°15°
20°11°
Todaysplit ±2°Tomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaysplit ±3°Fridaysplit ±4°
Env. CanadaGEM model
19°
Clear
Feels 17° · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 49%
EuropeanECMWF
17°
Clear
Feels 17° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 80%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Clear
Feels 17° · Wind 9 km/h · Humidity 52%

Latest for Smiths Falls: Env. Canada (GEM model): 19° Clear · European (ECMWF): 17° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 19° Clear.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Smiths Falls and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
23° 13°
±2°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
24° 13°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
21° 15°
±5°
Wed
Showers
21° 16°
±2°
Thu
Showers
22° 15°
±3°
Fri
Mostly clear
20° 11°
±4°
Sat
Showers
24° 13°
±4°
Sun
Light drizzle
23° 14°
±11°
Mon
Clear
18° 11°
±8°
Tue
Clear
18° 12°
±3°
Wed
Clear
20° 10°
±6°
Thu
Mostly clear
20° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Sat
Light rain
19° 10°
±4°

Smiths Falls, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 27°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -9°C), with roughly 1010 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Smiths Falls right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Smiths Falls climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-1°
-8°
Feb
-9°
Mar
-4°
Apr
13°
May
20°
Jun
24°
14°
Jul
27°
18°
Aug
24°
15°
Sep
23°
13°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec
-5°

Which forecast is most accurate in Smiths Falls?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.4 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
80
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C94±3.0 km/t7687% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C93±3.7 km/t5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°22° to 24°±35%0% to 35% chance
Tomorrow±1°24° to 25°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±5°18° to 23°±6%3% to 9% chance
Wed±2°20° to 22°±23%57% to 80% chance
Thu±3°20° to 24°±7%29% to 36% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Smiths Falls

today, local time
Sunrise
06:32
Sunset
19:32
Daylight
13h 0m

Common questions

What's the weather in Smiths Falls today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Smiths Falls today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Smiths Falls today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Smiths Falls and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Smiths Falls?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Smiths Falls (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Smiths Falls?
July is typically the warmest month in Smiths Falls, with average highs around 27°C.
How cold does Smiths Falls get?
The coldest month in Smiths Falls is February, when overnight lows average about -9°C.
How much rain does Smiths Falls get?
Smiths Falls sees roughly 1010 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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