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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 13°, with a 4% chance of rain.

11°-2°
13°0°
12°2°
6°-2°
6°-3°
10°-1°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
11°
Clear
Today 11°·Low -4°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
11°
Mostly clear
Today 11°·Low 0°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Clear
Today 11°·Low -3°·Rain 0%
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Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures swings 38°C across the year, from 23°C highs in July to -15°C lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1221 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 42 days a year at 25°C or above, 3 of them at 30°C or above, 162 frost nights, and rain on 155 days.

Warmest month
July
23°C average high
Coldest month
January
-15°C average low
Wettest month
July
1221 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
17,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
97/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
42 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
162 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
155 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
11° -2°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
13° 0°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
12° 2°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
6° -2°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
6° -3°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
10° -1°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
12° 3°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
8° 0°
±4°
Sun
Cloudy
12° 0°
±7°
Mon
Light rain
13° 3°
±9°
Tue
Light rain
12° 4°
±5°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
8° 0°
±6°
Thu
Drizzle
4° -1°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
4° -2°
±6°

Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures, Quebec is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -15°C), with roughly 1221 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-8°
-15°
Feb
-5°
-14°
Mar
-1°
-8°
Apr
8°
-1°
May
17°
6°
Jun
21°
12°
Jul
23°
16°
Aug
23°
15°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
11°
4°
Nov
3°
-3°
Dec
-5°
-12°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures' weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.9°C

Around Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures, 2015-2024 averaged 0.9°C warmer than 1995-2004. 4 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.

1995: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.8°C vs the 30-year average1997: −1.7°C vs the 30-year average1998: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2000: −1.1°C vs the 30-year average2001: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2002: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2003: −1.0°C vs the 30-year average2004: −1.2°C vs the 30-year average2005: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2007: −0.8°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2009: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average2010: +1.0°C vs the 30-year average2011: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2012: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2013: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2014: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2016: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2018: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2019: −0.8°C vs the 30-year average2020: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2021: +1.2°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2023: +1.2°C vs the 30-year average2024: +1.8°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 25°C

8 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +7 vs the 30-year average1996: −17 vs the 30-year average1997: −11 vs the 30-year average1998: −3 vs the 30-year average1999: +6 vs the 30-year average2000: −14 vs the 30-year average2001: +0 vs the 30-year average2002: +2 vs the 30-year average2003: +4 vs the 30-year average2004: −10 vs the 30-year average2005: +9 vs the 30-year average2006: +3 vs the 30-year average2007: −2 vs the 30-year average2008: −10 vs the 30-year average2009: −12 vs the 30-year average2010: +7 vs the 30-year average2011: −1 vs the 30-year average2012: +8 vs the 30-year average2013: −5 vs the 30-year average2014: −7 vs the 30-year average2015: −5 vs the 30-year average2016: −2 vs the 30-year average2017: −7 vs the 30-year average2018: +19 vs the 30-year average2019: −4 vs the 30-year average2020: +10 vs the 30-year average2021: +10 vs the 30-year average2022: +1 vs the 30-year average2023: +6 vs the 30-year average2024: +15 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

9 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −2 vs the 30-year average1996: +16 vs the 30-year average1997: +14 vs the 30-year average1998: −10 vs the 30-year average1999: +9 vs the 30-year average2000: +1 vs the 30-year average2001: +1 vs the 30-year average2002: +15 vs the 30-year average2003: +4 vs the 30-year average2004: +13 vs the 30-year average2005: −3 vs the 30-year average2006: −13 vs the 30-year average2007: +4 vs the 30-year average2008: −12 vs the 30-year average2009: +5 vs the 30-year average2010: −8 vs the 30-year average2011: −4 vs the 30-year average2012: −5 vs the 30-year average2013: +7 vs the 30-year average2014: −4 vs the 30-year average2015: −1 vs the 30-year average2016: +5 vs the 30-year average2017: −8 vs the 30-year average2018: +14 vs the 30-year average2019: −2 vs the 30-year average2020: +14 vs the 30-year average2021: −21 vs the 30-year average2022: −4 vs the 30-year average2023: −8 vs the 30-year average2024: −16 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +2% vs the 30-year average1996: −1% vs the 30-year average1997: −1% vs the 30-year average1998: −1% vs the 30-year average1999: −1% vs the 30-year average2000: −1% vs the 30-year average2001: −4% vs the 30-year average2002: +2% vs the 30-year average2003: −1% vs the 30-year average2004: −1% vs the 30-year average2005: +2% vs the 30-year average2006: +2% vs the 30-year average2007: +5% vs the 30-year average2008: −1% vs the 30-year average2009: −1% vs the 30-year average2010: −1% vs the 30-year average2011: −1% vs the 30-year average2012: −4% vs the 30-year average2013: +2% vs the 30-year average2014: +2% vs the 30-year average2015: +2% vs the 30-year average2016: −1% vs the 30-year average2017: +2% vs the 30-year average2018: +2% vs the 30-year average2019: +5% vs the 30-year average2020: +2% vs the 30-year average2021: −1% vs the 30-year average2022: +2% vs the 30-year average2023: −7% vs the 30-year average2024: −1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >25°C vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.7°C+7−2+2%
1996−0.8°C−17+16−1%
1997−1.7°C−11+14−1%
1998+0.8°C−3−10−1%
1999+0.5°C+6+9−1%
2000−1.1°C−14+1−1%
2001+0.3°C+0+1−4%
2002−0.3°C+2+15+2%
2003−1.0°C+4+4−1%
2004−1.2°C−10+13−1%
2005±0.0°C+9−3+2%
2006+0.9°C+3−13+2%
2007−0.8°C−2+4+5%
2008−0.3°C−10−12−1%
2009−0.7°C−12+5−1%
2010+1.0°C+7−8−1%
2011+0.5°C−1−4−1%
2012+0.9°C+8−5−4%
2013−0.1°C−5+7+2%
2014−0.6°C−7−4+2%
2015−0.6°C−5−1+2%
2016+0.2°C−2+5−1%
2017+0.1°C−7−8+2%
2018−0.2°C+19+14+2%
2019−0.8°C−4−2+5%
2020+0.5°C+10+14+2%
2021+1.2°C+10−21−1%
2022+0.4°C+1−4+2%
2023+1.2°C+6−8−7%
2024+1.8°C+15−16−1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C97±1.3 km/h100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
88
/100rank #2
83±0.9°C96±2.0 km/h8994% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
86
/100rank #3
88±0.7°C96±2.0 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°11° to 11°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°12° to 14°±4%0% to 4% chance
Mon±2°11° to 13°±53%19% to 72% chance
Tue±1°5° to 7°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±2°5° to 7°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures

today, local time
Sunrise
07:16
Sunset
17:42
Daylight
10h 26m

Common questions

What's the weather in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 13°, with a 4% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 4% (Env. Canada 0%, European 0%, American 4%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures?
July is typically the warmest month in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures get?
The coldest month in Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures is January, when overnight lows average about -15°C.
How much rain does Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures get?
Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures sees roughly 1221 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
Is Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures, 2015-2024 averaged 0.9°C warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

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