Skip to main content

Orangeville weekend weather

This weekend in Orangeville, Ontario, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 23° across the weekend. Agreement is low — the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 84% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
Env. CanadaGEM model
27°
Light drizzle
High 27°·Low 19°·Rain 71%
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Light rain
High 22°·Low 18°·Rain 84%
AmericanNOAA GFS
28°
Heavy drizzle
High 28°·Low 17°·Rain 70%

The models are 6° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
Env. CanadaGEM model
20°
Showers
High 20°·Low 15°·Rain 74%
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Heavy drizzle
High 22°·Low 18°·Rain 79%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Heavy showers
High 19°·Low 16°·Rain 67%

The models range from 19° to 22°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°25° to 26°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°28° to 30°±57%25% to 82% chance
Sat±6°22° to 28°±14%70% to 84% chance
Sun±3°19° to 22°±12%67% to 79% chance
Mon±2°21° to 23°±26%5% to 31% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 84%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers — when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

More for Orangeville