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Every Canadian forecast, compared
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CheckWeather CAOak Bay
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Oak Bay weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 21° in Oak Bay today. Tomorrow looks clear around 23°, with a 5% chance of rain.

21°11°
23°11°
19°12°
19°11°
20°12°
19°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaysplit ±4°
Env. CanadaGEM model
20°
Cloudy
Today 20°·Low 10°·Rain 10%
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 12°·Rain 67%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 11°·Rain 4%

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Oak Bay and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
21° 11°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
23° 11°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
19° 12°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
19° 11°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
20° 12°
±2°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 13°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
20° 12°
±5°
Sat
Drizzle
20° 12°
models agree
Sun
Clear
20° 12°
±5°
Mon
Drizzle
21° 13°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
22° 13°
±5°
Wed
Cloudy
20° 11°
±4°
Thu
Partly cloudy
19° 12°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
18° 11°
±6°

Oak Bay, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1000 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Oak Bay right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Oak Bay climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
12°
May
18°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
25°
14°
Aug
24°
14°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
13°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Oak Bay?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
82±1.0°C90±4.9 km/t100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
77±1.3°C94±3.1 km/t7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
77
/100rank #3
66±1.9°C96±2.1 km/t7687% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°20° to 22°±63%4% to 67% chance
Tomorrow±1°22° to 24°±5%0% to 5% chance
Mon±6°16° to 21°±42%17% to 59% chance
Tue±3°18° to 21°±12%0% to 12% chance
Wed±2°19° to 21°±5%1% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Oak Bay

today, local time
Sunrise
06:36
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
13h 10m

Common questions

What's the weather in Oak Bay today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Oak Bay today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Oak Bay today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Oak Bay and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Oak Bay?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Oak Bay (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Oak Bay?
July is typically the warmest month in Oak Bay, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Oak Bay get?
The coldest month in Oak Bay is February, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Oak Bay get?
Oak Bay sees roughly 1000 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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