Moncton swings 39°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to -14°C lows in February, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1201 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 47 days a year at 25°C or above, 5 of them at 30°C or above, 148 frost nights, and rain on 140 days.
Warmest month
July
25°C average high
Coldest month
February
-14°C average low
Wettest month
October
1201 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
86,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
47 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
148 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
140 days
a year with 1 mm or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Moncton’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Moncton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…
Moncton hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
Loading the three models…
Moncton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
10°-1°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
16°2°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
14°6°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
7°0°
±3°
Wed
Clear
7°-3°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
12°-1°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
13°5°
±3°
Sat
Partly cloudy
9°1°
±4°
Sun
Clear
10°-1°
±9°
Mon
Cloudy
13°6°
±9°
Tue
Drizzle
14°9°
±6°
Wed
Drizzle
15°6°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
8°1°
±7°
Fri
Light drizzle
8°0°
±6°
Moncton, New Brunswick is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -14°C), with roughly 1201 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Moncton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-3°
-12°
Feb
-3°
-14°
Mar
2°
-7°
Apr
9°
-1°
May
15°
5°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
25°
16°
Aug
24°
15°
Sep
19°
10°
Oct
13°
5°
Nov
6°
-1°
Dec
0°
-8°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Moncton's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.8°C
Around Moncton, 2015-2024 averaged 0.8°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
9 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
6 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.6°C
+4
+11
−1%
1996
−0.7°C
−9
+7
−1%
1997
−1.6°C
−10
+14
−1%
1998
+0.3°C
−3
−5
+3%
1999
+1.1°C
+17
−8
+3%
2000
−0.4°C
−15
−6
+3%
2001
−0.1°C
+1
+8
−5%
2002
−0.7°C
−2
+18
+3%
2003
−0.8°C
+2
+3
−1%
2004
−1.0°C
−10
+8
+3%
2005
−0.1°C
−8
−11
−1%
2006
+0.9°C
−7
−12
−1%
2007
−0.9°C
−3
+10
+3%
2008
−0.2°C
−8
+4
−1%
2009
−0.6°C
−6
+6
−1%
2010
+1.1°C
+4
−24
−1%
2011
+0.2°C
−15
−9
−1%
2012
+0.9°C
+3
−8
−5%
2013
−0.3°C
−5
+6
−1%
2014
−0.2°C
+1
−4
−1%
2015
−1.0°C
+3
+2
−1%
2016
+0.1°C
+2
−2
−1%
2017
+0.2°C
+1
−2
−1%
2018
−0.2°C
+18
+8
+3%
2019
−0.7°C
−5
+7
+3%
2020
+0.6°C
+16
+14
+3%
2021
+1.2°C
+5
−21
−1%
2022
+1.1°C
+13
−7
−1%
2023
+1.1°C
+8
−2
−9%
2024
+1.4°C
+13
−6
−1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Moncton, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Moncton?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C
97±1.3 km/h
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
85
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C
97±1.7 km/h
7184% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American
80
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C
96±2.0 km/h
6581% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
models agree10° to 11°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow
±2°14° to 16°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon
±1°14° to 15°
±7%7% to 14% chance
Tue
±3°6° to 9°
±7%7% to 14% chance
Wed
±2°6° to 8°
models agree0% to 0% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Moncton
today, local time
Sunrise
07:48
Sunset
18:17
Daylight
10h 29m
Common questions
What's the weather in Moncton today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 10° in Moncton today. Tomorrow: clear, around 16°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Moncton today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Moncton on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (Env. Canada 0%, European 0%, American 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Moncton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Moncton (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Moncton?
July is typically the warmest month in Moncton, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Moncton get?
The coldest month in Moncton is February, when overnight lows average about -14°C.
How much rain does Moncton get?
Moncton sees roughly 1201 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Moncton getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Moncton, 2015-2024 averaged 0.8°C warmer than 1995-2004.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.
