Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Kawartha Lakes today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 20°, with a 74% chance of rain.
Kawartha Lakes swings 37°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to -12°C lows in February, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 907 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
July
25°C average high
Coldest month
February
-12°C average low
Wettest month
May
907 mm a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
79,000
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The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Kawartha Lakes and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kawartha Lakes hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Kawartha Lakes 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
18°11°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
20°12°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
18°10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
13°5°
±3°
Sat
Light rain
9°3°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
9°2°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
11°2°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
11°5°
±8°
Wed
Light drizzle
7°0°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
7°-2°
±6°
Fri
Drizzle
10°2°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
6°-2°
±10°
Sun
Cloudy
10°-2°
±5°
Kawartha Lakes, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -12°C), with roughly 907 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Kawartha Lakes right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-3°
-10°
Feb
-2°
-12°
Mar
3°
-6°
Apr
11°
0°
May
18°
6°
Jun
22°
12°
Jul
25°
15°
Aug
24°
15°
Sep
21°
11°
Oct
13°
5°
Nov
6°
-1°
Dec
-2°
-7°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Kawartha Lakes' weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.3°C
Around Kawartha Lakes, 2015-2024 averaged 1.3°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 30°C
14 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Frost nights
6 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
+1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >30°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.6°C
+5
+11
+3%
1996
−1.5°C
−13
+23
+0%
1997
−1.2°C
−12
+20
+3%
1998
+1.1°C
−7
−14
−2%
1999
+0.2°C
−3
−7
+0%
2000
−0.9°C
−14
−2
+0%
2001
−0.1°C
−6
−2
−2%
2002
−0.5°C
−4
+18
+0%
2003
−1.5°C
−5
+2
−2%
2004
−1.3°C
−15
−8
−2%
2005
+0.5°C
+16
+3
−2%
2006
+0.6°C
−2
−11
+0%
2007
−0.4°C
−2
−7
+0%
2008
−0.6°C
−12
+1
+0%
2009
−0.9°C
−11
+7
−2%
2010
+0.6°C
+9
−11
+0%
2011
+0.5°C
+2
−10
−2%
2012
+1.6°C
+11
−11
+0%
2013
−0.1°C
+1
+4
+0%
2014
−1.2°C
−12
+7
+3%
2015
−0.1°C
+0
−9
+0%
2016
+1.1°C
+22
+1
+0%
2017
+0.5°C
−8
−5
+3%
2018
+0.2°C
+8
+18
+0%
2019
−0.7°C
+0
+3
+3%
2020
+0.9°C
+23
+8
+0%
2021
+1.4°C
+9
−11
−2%
2022
+0.3°C
+5
−5
+3%
2023
+1.5°C
+2
−1
−5%
2024
+2.1°C
+6
−22
+0%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Kawartha Lakes, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Kawartha Lakes?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C
98±1.0 km/h
100100% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
88
/100rank #2
85±0.8°C
92±3.9 km/h
8994% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American
80
/100rank #3
88±0.7°C
97±1.7 km/h
5877% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±1°18° to 19°
±39%14% to 53% chance
Tomorrow
±1°20° to 21°
±29%45% to 74% chance
Thu
±1°17° to 18°
±2%89% to 91% chance
Fri
±3°11° to 14°
±29%32% to 61% chance
Sat
±5°6° to 11°
±8%35% to 43% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Kawartha Lakes
today, local time
Sunrise
06:54
Sunset
17:01
Daylight
10h 7m
Common questions
What's the weather in Kawartha Lakes today?
Tuesday, November 3: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Kawartha Lakes today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 20°, with a 74% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kawartha Lakes today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Kawartha Lakes on Wednesday, November 4: Env. Canada 45%, European 63%, American 74%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Tuesday, November 3 the highest chance of rain from any model is 53%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kawartha Lakes?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kawartha Lakes (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kawartha Lakes?
July is typically the warmest month in Kawartha Lakes, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Kawartha Lakes get?
The coldest month in Kawartha Lakes is February, when overnight lows average about -12°C.
How much rain does Kawartha Lakes get?
Kawartha Lakes sees roughly 907 mm of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.
Is Kawartha Lakes getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Kawartha Lakes, 2015-2024 averaged 1.3°C warmer than 1995-2004.
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