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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 2°C

Aylmer weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Aylmer's high today between 23° and 25°, a 2° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 24°, with a 0% chance of rain.

24°13°
24°14°
25°20°
22°13°
22°10°
24°15°
Todaysplit ±2°Tomorrowmodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±3°Fridaymodels agreeSaturdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
15°
Clear
Feels 14° · Wind 3 km/h · Humidity 79%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Mainly clear
Feels 17° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 83%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Mainly clear
Feels 15° · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 83%

Latest for Aylmer: Env. Canada (GEM model): 15° Clear · European (ECMWF): 16° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 15° Mainly clear.

Aylmer weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Aylmer swings 31°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -5°C lows in February, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1117 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
February
-5°C average low
Wettest month
August
1117 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and September
Residents
7,492
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Aylmer and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
24° 13°
±2°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
24° 14°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
25° 20°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
22° 13°
±3°
Fri
Clear
22° 10°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
24° 15°
models agree
Sun
Partly cloudy
24° 16°
±5°
Mon
Clear
24° 13°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
23° 13°
±7°
Wed
Light drizzle
21° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
22° 11°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
16° 11°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
15°
±3°
Sun
Mostly clear
15°
models agree

Aylmer, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -5°C), with roughly 1117 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Aylmer right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Aylmer climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-4°
Feb
-5°
Mar
-2°
Apr
14°
May
20°
Jun
24°
14°
Jul
26°
17°
Aug
25°
16°
Sep
23°
14°
Oct
16°
Nov
Dec
-2°

Which forecast is most accurate in Aylmer?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
98
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C97±1.3 km/t100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
75
/100rank #2
72±1.6°C94±3.2 km/t6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
73
/100rank #3
81±1.1°C95±2.5 km/t4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°23° to 25°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°23° to 25°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±5°22° to 27°±21%57% to 78% chance
Thu±3°20° to 23°±9%29% to 38% chance
Fri±1°22° to 22°±4%0% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Aylmer

today, local time
Sunrise
06:55
Sunset
19:48
Daylight
12h 53m

Common questions

What's the weather in Aylmer today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Aylmer today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Aylmer today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Aylmer and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Aylmer?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Aylmer (CheckWeather Score 98/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Aylmer?
July is typically the warmest month in Aylmer, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Aylmer get?
The coldest month in Aylmer is February, when overnight lows average about -5°C.
How much rain does Aylmer get?
Aylmer sees roughly 1117 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather