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Every Canadian forecast, compared
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CheckWeather CAAurora
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Aurora weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Aurora's high today between 22° and 25°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks clear around 23°, with a 6% chance of rain.

23°13°
23°13°
24°14°
23°17°
22°15°
21°11°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±2°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±2°Fridaysplit ±7°
Env. CanadaGEM model
25°
Mostly clear
Today 25°·Low 13°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Mostly clear
Today 22°·Low 14°·Rain 10%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 13°·Rain 2%

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Aurora and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
23° 13°
±3°
Tomorrow
Clear
23° 13°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
24° 14°
±2°
Wed
Light drizzle
23° 17°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
22° 15°
±2°
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 11°
±7°
Sat
Heavy drizzle
24° 13°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
23° 13°
±13°
Mon
Clear
18° 10°
±4°
Tue
Clear
19° 12°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
19° 11°
±4°
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 11°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
18° 12°
models agree

Aurora, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -7°C), with roughly 1001 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Aurora right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Aurora climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-6°
Feb
-7°
Mar
-4°
Apr
13°
May
20°
Jun
23°
14°
Jul
26°
16°
Aug
24°
15°
Sep
23°
13°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec
-3°

Which forecast is most accurate in Aurora?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.5 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
78
/100rank #2
74±1.5°C94±2.9 km/t7184% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
77±1.3°C95±2.6 km/t5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°22° to 25°±10%0% to 10% chance
Tomorrow±2°23° to 25°±6%0% to 6% chance
Tue±2°23° to 25°±5%5% to 10% chance
Wed±5°21° to 26°±12%61% to 73% chance
Thu±2°21° to 23°±7%18% to 25% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Aurora

today, local time
Sunrise
06:47
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
12h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Aurora today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Aurora today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Aurora today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Aurora and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Aurora?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Aurora (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Aurora?
July is typically the warmest month in Aurora, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Aurora get?
The coldest month in Aurora is February, when overnight lows average about -7°C.
How much rain does Aurora get?
Aurora sees roughly 1001 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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