European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 27° in Mudgee today. Tomorrow: showers, around 27°, with a 100% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.
Mudgee swings 27°C across the year, from 29°C highs in January to 2°C lows in July, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 721 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
January
29°C average high
Coldest month
July
2°C average low
Wettest month
November
721 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, May and September
Residents
11,000
share this forecast
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Mudgee and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mudgee hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Mudgee 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
27°13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
27°17°
±6°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
22°10°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
20°7°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
22°7°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
25°8°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
21°11°
±6°
Sat
Rain
21°14°
±4°
Sun
Light drizzle
23°12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
22°9°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
26°10°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
25°15°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
25°10°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
27°12°
models agree
Mudgee, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 29°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 2°C), with roughly 721 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Mudgee right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
29°
16°
Feb
27°
15°
Mar
25°
12°
Apr
21°
10°
May
17°
6°
Jun
13°
3°
Jul
12°
2°
Aug
13°
2°
Sep
18°
4°
Oct
22°
8°
Nov
24°
11°
Dec
27°
13°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Mudgee's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.6°C
Around Mudgee, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.6°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 35°C
2 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
4 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
+1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >35°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.9°C
−15
+12
+6%
1996
−1.3°C
−14
+4
+3%
1997
+0.2°C
−5
+11
−4%
1998
−0.1°C
+2
+1
−4%
1999
−0.3°C
−2
−7
−2%
2000
−0.8°C
−12
+2
−4%
2001
±0.0°C
+9
−4
−2%
2002
+0.5°C
+2
+3
+1%
2003
−0.2°C
+7
+5
+1%
2004
+0.2°C
+12
−0
+1%
2005
+0.4°C
+3
−0
−2%
2006
+0.7°C
+18
+2
−2%
2007
+0.1°C
−2
+1
−2%
2008
−0.7°C
−17
+5
+1%
2009
+0.8°C
+18
−5
+6%
2010
−0.8°C
−10
+3
−2%
2011
−0.3°C
−11
−2
+1%
2012
−0.5°C
−11
−0
−2%
2013
+0.4°C
+1
−5
+1%
2014
+0.5°C
+14
−5
−4%
2015
+0.1°C
−12
+5
−2%
2016
+0.1°C
−5
+2
+1%
2017
+0.9°C
+16
+1
+1%
2018
+0.9°C
+12
+4
+1%
2019
+1.3°C
+19
+4
+1%
2020
−0.2°C
+5
−5
+3%
2021
−1.1°C
−17
+1
+1%
2022
−1.2°C
−19
−7
+6%
2023
+1.0°C
+4
−6
−2%
2024
+1.0°C
−3
−6
−4%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Mudgee, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Mudgee?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
84±0.9°C
98±0.9 km/h
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
85
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C
94±3.2 km/h
8994% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American
81
/100rank #3
60±2.2°C
95±2.3 km/h
9597% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±1°26° to 27°
±33%33% to 66% chance
Tomorrow
±6°24° to 30°
±15%85% to 100% chance
Mon
±2°21° to 23°
±23%75% to 98% chance
Tue
±1°20° to 21°
±3%0% to 3% chance
Wed
±4°20° to 24°
±10%3% to 13% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Mudgee
today, local time
Sunrise
06:12
Sunset
19:20
Daylight
13h 8m
Common questions
What's the weather in Mudgee today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 27° in Mudgee today. Tomorrow: showers, around 27°, with a 100% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mudgee today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Mudgee on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 85% (European 98%, American 100%, German 85%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 66%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mudgee?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mudgee (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the German at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mudgee?
January is typically the warmest month in Mudgee, with average highs around 29°C.
How cold does Mudgee get?
The coldest month in Mudgee is July, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Mudgee get?
Mudgee sees roughly 721 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.
Is Mudgee getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Mudgee, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.6°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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