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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Mount Gambier (Mt Gambier) weather

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Heavy drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Mount Gambier's high today between 21° and 24°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: rain, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain.

23°10°
14°8°
15°6°
16°6°
17°7°
19°9°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±4°
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Heavy drizzle
Today 21°·Low 10°·Rain 86%
AmericanNOAA GFS
24°
Heavy rain
Today 24°·Low 9°·Rain 55%
GermanDWD ICON
22°
Showers
Today 22°·Low 12°·Rain 95%
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Mount Gambier weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Mount Gambier swings 17°C across the year, from 24°C highs in January to 7°C lows in June, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 756 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
24°C average high
Coldest month
June
7°C average low
Wettest month
August
756 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
26,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Mount Gambier and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mount Gambier hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Mount Gambier 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
23° 10°
±3°
Tomorrow
Rain
14° 8°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 6°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
16° 6°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 7°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 9°
±4°
Fri
Light rain
19° 11°
±7°
Sat
Light drizzle
18° 10°
±4°
Sun
Cloudy
15° 7°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
20° 5°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
20° 12°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 9°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
20° 8°
±6°
Fri
Light drizzle
26° 10°
±7°

Mount Gambier, South Australia (often shortened to Mt Gambier) is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 7°C), with roughly 756 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Mount Gambier right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Mount Gambier climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
24°
13°
Feb
24°
12°
Mar
22°
12°
Apr
18°
10°
May
16°
8°
Jun
13°
7°
Jul
13°
7°
Aug
14°
7°
Sep
15°
8°
Oct
17°
7°
Nov
19°
9°
Dec
22°
12°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Mount Gambier's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.4°C

Around Mount Gambier, 2015-2024 averaged 0.4°C warmer than 1995-2004. 3 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2017.

1995: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average1997: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average1998: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2000: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2001: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2002: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2004: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2006: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2009: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2010: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2011: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2012: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2013: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2016: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2020: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2021: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 30°C

no clear change

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −1 vs the 30-year average1996: −3 vs the 30-year average1997: +2 vs the 30-year average1998: +1 vs the 30-year average1999: −4 vs the 30-year average2000: +6 vs the 30-year average2001: +4 vs the 30-year average2002: −3 vs the 30-year average2003: −0 vs the 30-year average2004: −4 vs the 30-year average2005: −2 vs the 30-year average2006: +2 vs the 30-year average2007: +3 vs the 30-year average2008: +3 vs the 30-year average2009: +1 vs the 30-year average2010: +1 vs the 30-year average2011: −7 vs the 30-year average2012: +5 vs the 30-year average2013: +7 vs the 30-year average2014: +2 vs the 30-year average2015: +5 vs the 30-year average2016: −4 vs the 30-year average2017: +6 vs the 30-year average2018: +1 vs the 30-year average2019: +5 vs the 30-year average2020: −4 vs the 30-year average2021: −3 vs the 30-year average2022: −1 vs the 30-year average2023: −2 vs the 30-year average2024: −1 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5% vs the 30-year average1996: +5% vs the 30-year average1997: −5% vs the 30-year average1998: −3% vs the 30-year average1999: −3% vs the 30-year average2000: +3% vs the 30-year average2001: −1% vs the 30-year average2002: +5% vs the 30-year average2003: +3% vs the 30-year average2004: +1% vs the 30-year average2005: −3% vs the 30-year average2006: −3% vs the 30-year average2007: +1% vs the 30-year average2008: +1% vs the 30-year average2009: −1% vs the 30-year average2010: −6% vs the 30-year average2011: −5% vs the 30-year average2012: +1% vs the 30-year average2013: +5% vs the 30-year average2014: −3% vs the 30-year average2015: −1% vs the 30-year average2016: +1% vs the 30-year average2017: −5% vs the 30-year average2018: +3% vs the 30-year average2019: +3% vs the 30-year average2020: −1% vs the 30-year average2021: +1% vs the 30-year average2022: −3% vs the 30-year average2023: +1% vs the 30-year average2024: −3% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >30°C vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.7°C−1+5%
1996−0.7°C−3+5%
1997−0.2°C+2−5%
1998−0.4°C+1−3%
1999+0.2°C−4−3%
2000+0.3°C+6+3%
2001±0.0°C+4−1%
2002−0.3°C−3+5%
2003−0.4°C−0+3%
2004−0.5°C−4+1%
2005+0.2°C−2−3%
2006−0.3°C+2−3%
2007+0.4°C+3+1%
2008−0.2°C+3+1%
2009+0.2°C+1−1%
2010−0.1°C+1−6%
2011−0.1°C−7−5%
2012+0.1°C+5+1%
2013+0.4°C+7+5%
2014+0.3°C+2−3%
2015−0.1°C+5−1%
2016±0.0°C−4+1%
2017+0.5°C+6−5%
2018+0.5°C+1+3%
2019+0.2°C+5+3%
2020−0.4°C−4−1%
2021−0.3°C−3+1%
2022+0.2°C−1−3%
2023+0.2°C−2+1%
2024+0.5°C−1−3%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Mount Gambier, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Mount Gambier?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C99±0.7 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
84
/100rank #2
77±1.3°C96±2.1 km/h8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
71
/100rank #3
65±1.9°C88±6.1 km/h6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°21° to 24°±40%55% to 95% chance
Tomorrow±1°14° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±3°13° to 16°±35%19% to 54% chance
Tue±2°15° to 17°±25%10% to 35% chance
Wed±3°15° to 18°±11%8% to 19% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mount Gambier

today, local time
Sunrise
06:10
Sunset
19:32
Daylight
13h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mount Gambier today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Mount Gambier's high today between 21° and 24°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: rain, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mount Gambier today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Mount Gambier on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 95%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mount Gambier?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mount Gambier (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the German at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mount Gambier?
January is typically the warmest month in Mount Gambier, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Mount Gambier get?
The coldest month in Mount Gambier is June, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Mount Gambier get?
Mount Gambier sees roughly 756 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Mount Gambier getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Mount Gambier, 2015-2024 averaged 0.4°C warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

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