Ararat swings 22°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 4°C lows in July, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 629 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
4°C average low
Wettest month
August
629 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
8,500
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The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Ararat and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ararat hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Ararat 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Ararat, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 4°C), with roughly 629 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Ararat right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
13°
Feb
26°
12°
Mar
22°
10°
Apr
17°
8°
May
15°
6°
Jun
11°
5°
Jul
11°
4°
Aug
12°
4°
Sep
14°
4°
Oct
17°
6°
Nov
20°
8°
Dec
24°
10°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Ararat's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C
Around Ararat, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 35°C
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >35°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.0°C
+1
+2
+3%
1996
−1.1°C
−8
−0
+7%
1997
±0.0°C
+7
+3
−2%
1998
−0.3°C
+4
+3
−2%
1999
+0.2°C
+1
−2
−2%
2000
+0.3°C
+5
−2
+0%
2001
±0.0°C
+5
−3
+0%
2002
−0.1°C
−5
+4
+5%
2003
−0.2°C
+2
+2
+3%
2004
−0.5°C
−4
−2
+0%
2005
+0.2°C
−5
−1
+0%
2006
±0.0°C
+3
−2
−4%
2007
+0.6°C
−0
−0
+0%
2008
−0.2°C
+2
+1
+0%
2009
+0.3°C
+5
−0
+0%
2010
−0.4°C
−5
−1
−6%
2011
−0.3°C
−8
−1
−6%
2012
−0.1°C
+2
−1
+0%
2013
+0.3°C
+3
−1
+3%
2014
+0.7°C
+5
+1
−2%
2015
+0.3°C
+5
+3
−2%
2016
+0.3°C
−0
−0
+3%
2017
+0.4°C
−1
+3
−4%
2018
+0.6°C
+6
+2
+3%
2019
+0.4°C
+13
+1
+3%
2020
−0.5°C
−3
+1
+0%
2021
−0.6°C
−5
−1
+0%
2022
±0.0°C
−6
+1
−2%
2023
+0.2°C
−4
−1
+0%
2024
+0.8°C
−0
−2
−2%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Ararat, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Ararat?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C
97±1.6 km/h
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
90
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C
96±2.0 km/h
8994% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American
82
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C
96±2.2 km/h
7184% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Common questions
What's the weather in Ararat today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Ararat today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ararat today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Ararat and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ararat?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ararat (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the German at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ararat?
January is typically the warmest month in Ararat, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Ararat get?
The coldest month in Ararat is July, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Ararat get?
Ararat sees roughly 629 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Ararat getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Ararat, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004.
