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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Mount Eliza (Mt Eliza) weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 19° in Mount Eliza today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 17°, with a 100% chance of rain.

19°15°
17°10°
14°9°
14°9°
16°10°
19°12°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Rain
Today 19°·Low 14°·Rain 88%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Light rain
Today 18°·Low 14°·Rain 100%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Thunderstorm
Today 19°·Low 16°·Rain 83%
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Mount Eliza weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Mount Eliza swings 19°C across the year, from 25°C highs in January to 6°C lows in August, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 778 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
25°C average high
Coldest month
August
6°C average low
Wettest month
June
778 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
19,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Mount Eliza and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mount Eliza hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Mount Eliza 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
19° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
17° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
14° 9°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
14° 9°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
16° 10°
±2°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 12°
±3°
Fri
Rain
18° 11°
±5°
Sat
Drizzle
19° 13°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
18° 8°
±6°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
21° 10°
±5°
Wed
Drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
19° 10°
±8°
Fri
Mostly clear
23° 11°
±9°

Mount Eliza, Victoria (often shortened to Mt Eliza) is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 6°C), with roughly 778 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Mount Eliza right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Mount Eliza climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
25°
15°
Feb
25°
14°
Mar
23°
14°
Apr
18°
11°
May
15°
9°
Jun
13°
8°
Jul
13°
8°
Aug
13°
6°
Sep
16°
8°
Oct
17°
9°
Nov
21°
11°
Dec
22°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Mount Eliza has changed since 1995

Mount Eliza sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Melbourne. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Melbourne page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Mount Eliza?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C94±2.8 km/h100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
85
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C95±2.4 km/h8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
84
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C92±3.8 km/h8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°18° to 19°±17%83% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°16° to 18°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±2°14° to 15°±44%37% to 81% chance
Tue±1°14° to 15°±15%42% to 57% chance
Wed±2°15° to 18°±28%5% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mount Eliza

today, local time
Sunrise
06:21
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
13h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mount Eliza today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 19° in Mount Eliza today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 17°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mount Eliza today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Mount Eliza on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mount Eliza?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mount Eliza (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mount Eliza?
January is typically the warmest month in Mount Eliza, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Mount Eliza get?
The coldest month in Mount Eliza is August, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Mount Eliza get?
Mount Eliza sees roughly 778 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

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