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CheckWeather AUBlackmans Bay
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Blackmans Bay weather

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Heavy drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 16° in Blackmans Bay today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 12°, with a 98% chance of rain.

16°
12°
14°
11°
16°
15°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Heavy drizzle
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Light drizzle
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 98%
GermanDWD ICON
16°
Showers
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 28%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Blackmans Bay and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
12°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
11°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
15°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
20°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
12°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
12°
±2°
Thu
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
17°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
19°
±11°

Blackmans Bay, Tasmania is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 6°C), with roughly 891 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Blackmans Bay right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Blackmans Bay climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
21°
13°
Feb
21°
12°
Mar
19°
11°
Apr
16°
May
14°
Jun
12°
Jul
12°
Aug
13°
Sep
14°
Oct
16°
Nov
18°
Dec
20°
11°

Which forecast is most accurate in Blackmans Bay?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C99±0.7 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C94±3.0 km/t5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
78
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C96±2.1 km/t5374% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1493 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree16° to 16°±72%28% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°11° to 13°±43%55% to 98% chance
Tue±2°13° to 15°±26%55% to 81% chance
Wed±2°10° to 12°±20%48% to 68% chance
Thu±1°15° to 17°±19%0% to 19% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Blackmans Bay

today, local time
Sunrise
06:29
Sunset
17:49
Daylight
11h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Blackmans Bay today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Blackmans Bay today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Blackmans Bay today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Blackmans Bay and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Blackmans Bay?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Blackmans Bay (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Blackmans Bay?
January is typically the warmest month in Blackmans Bay, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Blackmans Bay get?
The coldest month in Blackmans Bay is June, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Blackmans Bay get?
Blackmans Bay sees roughly 891 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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