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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Bateau Bay weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Bateau Bay's high today between 24° and 27°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: showers, around 30°, with a 81% chance of rain.

25°15°
30°18°
21°16°
21°13°
22°11°
22°12°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Clear
Feels 22° · Wind 11 km/h · Humidity 94%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Overcast
Feels 22° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 89%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Mainly clear
Feels 22° · Wind 3 km/h · Humidity 95%

Latest for Bateau Bay: European (ECMWF): 20° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 20° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 19° Mainly clear.

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Bateau Bay weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Bateau Bay swings 18°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 8°C lows in July, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1310 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
8°C average low
Wettest month
February
1310 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
12,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Bateau Bay and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Bateau Bay hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Bateau Bay 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
25° 15°
±3°
Tomorrow
Showers
30° 18°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
21° 16°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
22° 11°
±4°
Thu
Clear
22° 12°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
22° 14°
±5°
Sat
Rain
28° 16°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
21° 16°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
19° 14°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
21° 14°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
28° 14°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
21° 16°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
21° 14°
±4°

Bateau Bay, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 8°C), with roughly 1310 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Bateau Bay right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Bateau Bay climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
19°
Feb
26°
18°
Mar
24°
16°
Apr
22°
14°
May
19°
11°
Jun
17°
9°
Jul
17°
8°
Aug
17°
8°
Sep
21°
9°
Oct
22°
12°
Nov
23°
16°
Dec
25°
16°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Bateau Bay has changed since 1995

Bateau Bay sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Central Coast. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Central Coast page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Bateau Bay?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C97±1.7 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
80
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C95±2.4 km/h6581% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
78
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C96±2.2 km/h6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°24° to 27°±37%0% to 37% chance
Tomorrow±2°29° to 31°±53%28% to 81% chance
Mon±1°21° to 22°±17%63% to 80% chance
Tue±2°20° to 22°±36%25% to 61% chance
Wed±4°20° to 24°±38%24% to 62% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Bateau Bay

today, local time
Sunrise
06:03
Sunset
19:13
Daylight
13h 10m

Common questions

What's the weather in Bateau Bay today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Bateau Bay's high today between 24° and 27°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: showers, around 30°, with a 81% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Bateau Bay today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Bateau Bay on Sunday 25 October: European 71%, American 81%, German 28%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 37%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Bateau Bay?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Bateau Bay (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the German at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Bateau Bay?
January is typically the warmest month in Bateau Bay, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Bateau Bay get?
The coldest month in Bateau Bay is July, when overnight lows average about 8°C.
How much rain does Bateau Bay get?
Bateau Bay sees roughly 1310 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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