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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°C

Central Coast weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Central Coast's high today between 24° and 28°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 31°, with a 81% chance of rain.

26°16°
31°19°
22°16°
22°13°
23°11°
23°12°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±2°Wednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Clear
Feels 21° · Wind 11 km/h · Humidity 88%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Overcast
Feels 22° · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 89%
GermanDWD ICON
21°
Clear
Feels 23° · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 88%

Latest for Central Coast: European (ECMWF): 20° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 20° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 21° Clear.

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Central Coast weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Central Coast swings 18°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 8°C lows in July, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1179 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
8°C average low
Wettest month
February
1179 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
347,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Central Coast and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Central Coast hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Central Coast 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
26° 16°
±4°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
31° 19°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
22° 16°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
22° 13°
±2°
Wed
Light drizzle
23° 11°
±6°
Thu
Clear
23° 12°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
23° 15°
±7°
Sat
Light rain
28° 16°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
21° 15°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
19° 13°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
21° 14°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
29° 14°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
21° 15°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
23° 14°
±6°

Central Coast, New South Wales. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Central Coast right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Central Coast's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Central Coast weather by month

what to expect in Central Coast through the year, 1991-2020 averages

Here is Central Coast's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Central Coast by season.

Jan
26°
19°
Warm
Feb
25°
19°
Warm
Wettest
Mar
24°
17°
Warm
Apr
22°
15°
Warm
May
19°
11°
Mild
Jun
17°
9°
Mild
Jul
16°
8°
Mild
Aug
17°
8°
Mild
Sep
20°
10°
Mild
Oct
21°
12°
Mild
Nov
23°
16°
Warm
Dec
24°
17°
Warm

What Central Coast's weather is like through the year

Central Coast runs from warm summers, with January highs near 26°C, to cold winters, when July lows sit around 8°C (a swing of about 18°C across the year). February is usually the wettest month, and Central Coast sees roughly 1179 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Central Coast

The most comfortable time to visit Central Coast is usually January, March, April and May, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest February rain is behind you.

How Central Coast's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C

Around Central Coast, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.5°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −1.1°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.8°C vs the 30-year average1997: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average1998: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average1999: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2001: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2007: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2009: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2010: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2011: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2013: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2015: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2016: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2020: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2021: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2022: −0.8°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 35°C

1 more day a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −6 vs the 30-year average1996: −5 vs the 30-year average1997: +0 vs the 30-year average1998: +0 vs the 30-year average1999: −5 vs the 30-year average2000: +0 vs the 30-year average2001: +0 vs the 30-year average2002: +2 vs the 30-year average2003: +1 vs the 30-year average2004: +9 vs the 30-year average2005: −2 vs the 30-year average2006: +2 vs the 30-year average2007: −5 vs the 30-year average2008: −6 vs the 30-year average2009: +10 vs the 30-year average2010: −1 vs the 30-year average2011: +0 vs the 30-year average2012: −3 vs the 30-year average2013: +1 vs the 30-year average2014: −2 vs the 30-year average2015: −1 vs the 30-year average2016: +2 vs the 30-year average2017: +11 vs the 30-year average2018: +1 vs the 30-year average2019: +5 vs the 30-year average2020: +1 vs the 30-year average2021: −5 vs the 30-year average2022: −6 vs the 30-year average2023: −2 vs the 30-year average2024: −1 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−2%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +1% vs the 30-year average1996: +1% vs the 30-year average1997: +1% vs the 30-year average1998: +1% vs the 30-year average1999: +1% vs the 30-year average2000: +1% vs the 30-year average2001: +1% vs the 30-year average2002: +1% vs the 30-year average2003: +5% vs the 30-year average2004: +1% vs the 30-year average2005: +1% vs the 30-year average2006: +1% vs the 30-year average2007: +1% vs the 30-year average2008: +1% vs the 30-year average2009: +1% vs the 30-year average2010: +1% vs the 30-year average2011: +1% vs the 30-year average2012: +1% vs the 30-year average2013: +1% vs the 30-year average2014: −4% vs the 30-year average2015: −4% vs the 30-year average2016: +1% vs the 30-year average2017: +1% vs the 30-year average2018: +1% vs the 30-year average2019: −4% vs the 30-year average2020: +1% vs the 30-year average2021: +1% vs the 30-year average2022: +1% vs the 30-year average2023: −4% vs the 30-year average2024: −4% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >35°C vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.1°C−6+1%
1996−0.8°C−5+1%
1997−0.1°C+0+1%
1998+0.2°C+0+1%
1999−0.3°C−5+1%
2000−0.2°C+0+1%
2001+0.1°C+0+1%
2002+0.2°C+2+1%
2003−0.2°C+1+5%
2004+0.3°C+9+1%
2005+0.4°C−2+1%
2006+0.2°C+2+1%
2007−0.2°C−5+1%
2008−0.6°C−6+1%
2009+0.5°C+10+1%
2010±0.0°C−1+1%
2011−0.4°C+0+1%
2012−0.5°C−3+1%
2013+0.2°C+1+1%
2014+0.3°C−2−4%
2015±0.0°C−1−4%
2016+0.7°C+2+1%
2017+0.7°C+11+1%
2018+0.5°C+1+1%
2019+0.9°C+5−4%
2020±0.0°C+1+1%
2021−0.6°C−5+1%
2022−0.8°C−6+1%
2023+0.8°C−2−4%
2024+0.9°C−1−4%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Central Coast, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Central Coast?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
78
/100rank #1
73±1.5°C96±2.0 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
75
/100rank #2
67±1.9°C92±4.2 km/h7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
75
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C95±2.3 km/h4771% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the American model has been the most accurate forecast for Central Coast, scoring 78/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the European at 75. See the full AU accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°24° to 28°±94%0% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±1°31° to 32°±43%38% to 81% chance
Mon±1°21° to 22°±15%65% to 80% chance
Tue±2°20° to 23°±42%19% to 61% chance
Wed±6°20° to 26°±49%13% to 62% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Central Coast

today, local time
Sunrise
06:03
Sunset
19:15
Daylight
13h 12m

Common questions

What's the weather in Central Coast today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Central Coast's high today between 24° and 28°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 31°, with a 81% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Central Coast today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Central Coast on Sunday 25 October: European 62%, American 81%, German 38%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 94%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Central Coast?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Central Coast (CheckWeather Score 78/100), ahead of the European at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Central Coast?
January is typically the warmest month in Central Coast, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Central Coast get?
The coldest month in Central Coast is July, when overnight lows average about 8°C.
How much rain does Central Coast get?
Central Coast sees roughly 1179 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Central Coast?
The most comfortable time to visit Central Coast is usually January, March, April and May, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest February rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Central Coast?
Rarely - Central Coast very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.
Is Central Coast getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Central Coast, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.5°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

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