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CheckWeather USTroy
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Troy weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 77° in Troy today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 75°, with a 0% chance of rain.

77°63°
75°59°
76°58°
80°61°
78°69°
78°64°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±8°Thursdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
75°
Cloudy
Today 75°·Low 63°·Rain 5%
AmericanNOAA GFS
78°
Cloudy
Today 78°·Low 63°·Rain 5%
EuropeanECMWF
77°
Cloudy
Today 77°·Low 62°·Rain 88%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Troy and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
77° 63°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
75° 59°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
76° 58°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
80° 61°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
78° 69°
±8°
Thu
Partly cloudy
78° 64°
±10°
Fri
Mostly clear
78° 59°
±10°
Sat
Partly cloudy
81° 63°
±7°
Sun
Showers
83° 64°
±11°
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 60°
±16°
Tue
Light drizzle
70° 55°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
70° 53°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
72° 54°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
74° 55°
models agree

Troy, MI is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 24°F), with roughly 39 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Troy right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Troy climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
35°
24°
Feb
43°
25°
Mar
47°
30°
Apr
60°
39°
May
72°
49°
Jun
80°
59°
Jul
82°
63°
Aug
80°
61°
Sep
75°
58°
Oct
63°
46°
Nov
50°
36°
Dec
41°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Troy?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F97±1.1 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
69
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F93±2.2 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°75° to 78°±83%5% to 88% chance
Tomorrow±2°75° to 76°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°75° to 77°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±5°78° to 83°models agree2% to 2% chance
Wed±8°74° to 82°±17%38% to 55% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Troy

today, local time
Sunrise
07:02
Sunset
20:00
Daylight
12h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Troy today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Troy today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Troy today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Troy and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Troy?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Troy (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Troy?
July is typically the warmest month in Troy, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Troy get?
The coldest month in Troy is January, when overnight lows average about 24°F.
How much rain does Troy get?
Troy sees roughly 39 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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