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CheckWeather USTroy
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Troy weather

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Partly cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 75° in Troy today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 72°, with a 41% chance of rain.

75°60°
72°59°
78°54°
79°58°
74°63°
78°64°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±9°Thursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
76°
Partly cloudy
Today 76°·Low 59°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
74°
Cloudy
Today 74°·Low 60°·Rain 4%
EuropeanECMWF
75°
Light drizzle
Today 75°·Low 62°·Rain 78%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Troy and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
75° 60°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
72° 59°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
78° 54°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
79° 58°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
74° 63°
±9°
Thu
Light drizzle
78° 64°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
73° 59°
±6°
Sat
Mostly clear
77° 56°
±10°
Sun
Light drizzle
82° 62°
±11°
Mon
Light rain
79° 62°
±9°
Tue
Drizzle
77° 59°
±18°
Wed
Showers
72° 56°
models agree
Thu
Clear
71° 54°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
72° 54°
models agree

Troy, NY is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 25°F), with roughly 51 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Troy right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Troy climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
38°
26°
Feb
42°
25°
Mar
48°
31°
Apr
60°
41°
May
72°
51°
Jun
79°
60°
Jul
85°
67°
Aug
79°
63°
Sep
75°
58°
Oct
64°
48°
Nov
50°
35°
Dec
40°
28°

Which forecast is most accurate in Troy?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F96±1.1 mph6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #2
91±0.9°F94±1.8 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°74° to 76°±74%4% to 78% chance
Tomorrow±1°71° to 72°±29%12% to 41% chance
Mon±2°76° to 79°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°78° to 80°±26%1% to 27% chance
Wed±9°69° to 79°±8%51% to 59% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Troy

today, local time
Sunrise
06:24
Sunset
19:22
Daylight
12h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Troy today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Troy today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Troy today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Troy and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Troy?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Troy (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the American at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Troy?
July is typically the warmest month in Troy, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does Troy get?
The coldest month in Troy is February, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Troy get?
Troy sees roughly 51 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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