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CheckWeather USMurrieta
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Murrieta weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Murrieta's high today between 88° and 93°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks heavy drizzle around 82°, with a 85% chance of rain.

92°60°
82°71°
94°70°
99°72°
103°75°
99°74°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±8°Tuesdaysplit ±10°Wednesdaysplit ±8°Thursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
88°
Mostly clear
Today 88°·Low 61°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
93°
Cloudy
Today 93°·Low 57°·Rain 4%
EuropeanECMWF
93°
Cloudy
Today 93°·Low 62°·Rain 41%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Murrieta and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
92° 60°
±5°
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
82° 71°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
94° 70°
±8°
Tue
Cloudy
99° 72°
±10°
Wed
Partly cloudy
103° 75°
±8°
Thu
Clear
99° 74°
±6°
Fri
Clear
92° 69°
models agree
Sat
Mostly clear
86° 65°
models agree
Sun
Clear
90° 64°
models agree
Mon
Clear
90° 64°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
94° 67°
±17°
Wed
Light drizzle
95° 72°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
90° 69°
±6°
Fri
Clear
91° 69°
±10°

Murrieta, CA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 96°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 43°F), with roughly 23 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Murrieta right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Murrieta climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
43°
Feb
61°
43°
Mar
62°
45°
Apr
72°
49°
May
75°
53°
Jun
83°
59°
Jul
96°
68°
Aug
93°
67°
Sep
88°
63°
Oct
86°
59°
Nov
73°
48°
Dec
70°
46°

Which forecast is most accurate in Murrieta?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
87±1.3°F94±1.7 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
88
/100rank #2
73±2.7°F95±1.7 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°88° to 93°±37%4% to 41% chance
Tomorrow±6°79° to 85°±50%35% to 85% chance
Mon±8°92° to 100°±10%5% to 15% chance
Tue±10°94° to 104°±1%13% to 14% chance
Wed±8°98° to 106°±2%20% to 22% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Murrieta

today, local time
Sunrise
06:25
Sunset
19:09
Daylight
12h 44m

Common questions

What's the weather in Murrieta today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Murrieta today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Murrieta today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Murrieta and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Murrieta?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Murrieta (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the European at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Murrieta?
July is typically the warmest month in Murrieta, with average highs around 96°F.
How cold does Murrieta get?
The coldest month in Murrieta is January, when overnight lows average about 43°F.
How much rain does Murrieta get?
Murrieta sees roughly 23 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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