Skip to main content
Every US forecast, compared
checkweather.io
CheckWeather USMenifee
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Menifee weather

Loading live data…

Mostly clear,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Menifee's high today between 89° and 94°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks light rain around 80°, with a 93% chance of rain.

92°60°
80°71°
94°70°
98°71°
102°75°
102°75°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±7°Tuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaysplit ±8°Thursdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
89°
Mostly clear
Today 89°·Low 63°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
92°
Mostly clear
Today 92°·Low 58°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Light drizzle
Today 94°·Low 60°·Rain 46%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Menifee and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
92° 60°
±5°
Tomorrow
Light rain
80° 71°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
94° 70°
±7°
Tue
Cloudy
98° 71°
±8°
Wed
Mostly clear
102° 75°
±8°
Thu
Clear
102° 75°
±10°
Fri
Clear
96° 71°
±5°
Sat
Clear
90° 65°
±5°
Sun
Mostly clear
93° 64°
±8°
Mon
Clear
95° 65°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
96° 68°
±15°
Wed
Light drizzle
98° 72°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
94° 70°
±8°
Fri
Clear
93° 69°
±11°

Menifee, CA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 100°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 42°F), with roughly 16 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Menifee right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Menifee climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
60°
42°
Feb
60°
42°
Mar
61°
44°
Apr
74°
48°
May
78°
53°
Jun
86°
58°
Jul
100°
68°
Aug
96°
67°
Sep
90°
63°
Oct
86°
58°
Nov
72°
47°
Dec
69°
43°

Which forecast is most accurate in Menifee?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F88±3.6 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
92
/100rank #2
90±1.0°F86±4.3 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°89° to 94°±43%3% to 46% chance
Tomorrow±3°78° to 81°±53%40% to 93% chance
Mon±7°91° to 98°±21%5% to 26% chance
Tue±8°94° to 102°±4%8% to 12% chance
Wed±8°97° to 106°±7%22% to 29% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Menifee

today, local time
Sunrise
06:25
Sunset
19:08
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Menifee today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Menifee today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Menifee today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Menifee and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Menifee?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Menifee (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 92. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Menifee?
July is typically the warmest month in Menifee, with average highs around 100°F.
How cold does Menifee get?
The coldest month in Menifee is January, when overnight lows average about 42°F.
How much rain does Menifee get?
Menifee sees roughly 16 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More US weather