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CheckWeather USLake Elsinore
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Lake Elsinore weather

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Mostly clear,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 93° in Lake Elsinore today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 80°, with a 93% chance of rain.

93°61°
80°71°
95°70°
99°72°
103°76°
104°76°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±8°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
91°
Mostly clear
Today 91°·Low 64°·Rain 2%
AmericanNOAA GFS
94°
Cloudy
Today 94°·Low 57°·Rain 2%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Light drizzle
Today 94°·Low 60°·Rain 46%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lake Elsinore and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
93° 61°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
80° 71°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
95° 70°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
99° 72°
±6°
Wed
Partly cloudy
103° 76°
±6°
Thu
Clear
104° 76°
±8°
Fri
Clear
97° 72°
±5°
Sat
Clear
91° 66°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
94° 65°
±8°
Mon
Clear
95° 67°
±9°
Tue
Light drizzle
97° 69°
±14°
Wed
Light drizzle
99° 73°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
95° 72°
±7°
Fri
Clear
93° 71°
±11°

Lake Elsinore, CA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 103°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 44°F), with roughly 17 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Lake Elsinore right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Lake Elsinore climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
44°
Feb
61°
44°
Mar
62°
45°
Apr
75°
50°
May
81°
55°
Jun
89°
61°
Jul
103°
71°
Aug
98°
69°
Sep
91°
64°
Oct
88°
60°
Nov
74°
49°
Dec
70°
46°

Which forecast is most accurate in Lake Elsinore?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±1.0 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
90
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F82±5.5 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°91° to 94°±44%2% to 46% chance
Tomorrow±4°78° to 83°±54%39% to 93% chance
Mon±6°93° to 99°±21%5% to 26% chance
Tue±6°96° to 102°±1%11% to 12% chance
Wed±6°100° to 106°±9%20% to 29% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lake Elsinore

today, local time
Sunrise
06:26
Sunset
19:09
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lake Elsinore today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Lake Elsinore today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lake Elsinore today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Lake Elsinore and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lake Elsinore?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lake Elsinore (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lake Elsinore?
July is typically the warmest month in Lake Elsinore, with average highs around 103°F.
How cold does Lake Elsinore get?
The coldest month in Lake Elsinore is January, when overnight lows average about 44°F.
How much rain does Lake Elsinore get?
Lake Elsinore sees roughly 17 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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