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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 6°F

Mission Viejo weather

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Mostly clear,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Mission Viejo's high today between 86° and 92°, a 6° split. Tomorrow looks light rain around 83°, with a 94% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

89°62°
83°70°
92°71°
92°74°
97°76°
93°76°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowsplit ±10°Mondaysplit ±7°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±7°Thursdaysplit ±8°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
86°
Mostly clear
Today 86°·Low 64°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
89°
Partly cloudy
Today 89°·Low 60°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
92°
Light drizzle
Today 92°·Low 63°·Rain 49%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Mission Viejo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
89° 62°
±6°
Tomorrow
Light rain
83° 70°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
92° 71°
±7°
Tue
Cloudy
92° 74°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
97° 76°
±7°
Thu
Clear
93° 76°
±8°
Fri
Clear
86° 71°
±7°
Sat
Mostly clear
82° 68°
±6°
Sun
Mostly clear
83° 67°
±11°
Mon
Clear
83° 67°
±6°
Tue
Light drizzle
86° 68°
±7°
Wed
Light drizzle
87° 72°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
84° 70°
±11°
Fri
Mostly clear
85° 69°
±15°

Mission Viejo, CA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 45°F), with roughly 27 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Mission Viejo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Mission Viejo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
62°
46°
Feb
61°
45°
Mar
61°
47°
Apr
67°
50°
May
68°
53°
Jun
74°
58°
Jul
83°
62°
Aug
83°
64°
Sep
81°
62°
Oct
80°
58°
Nov
73°
51°
Dec
68°
49°

Which forecast is most accurate in Mission Viejo?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
66±3.4°F97±0.9 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
82
/100rank #2
56±4.4°F98±0.7 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°86° to 92°±48%1% to 49% chance
Tomorrow±10°77° to 87°±59%35% to 94% chance
Mon±7°89° to 97°±21%5% to 26% chance
Tue±3°91° to 94°±2%8% to 10% chance
Wed±7°94° to 101°±5%4% to 9% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mission Viejo

today, local time
Sunrise
06:27
Sunset
19:10
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mission Viejo today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Mission Viejo today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Mission Viejo today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Mission Viejo and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mission Viejo?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Mission Viejo (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the European at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mission Viejo?
July is typically the warmest month in Mission Viejo, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Mission Viejo get?
The coldest month in Mission Viejo is February, when overnight lows average about 45°F.
How much rain does Mission Viejo get?
Mission Viejo sees roughly 27 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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