Skip to main content
Every US forecast, compared
checkweather.io
CheckWeather USMiddletown
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Middletown weather

Loading live data…

Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 78° in Middletown today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 71°, with a 88% chance of rain.

78°61°
71°60°
77°54°
81°57°
76°62°
79°67°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
78°
Light rain
Today 78°·Low 61°·Rain 24%
AmericanNOAA GFS
79°
Cloudy
Today 79°·Low 58°·Rain 24%
EuropeanECMWF
76°
Light drizzle
Today 76°·Low 64°·Rain 37%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Middletown and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
78° 61°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
71° 60°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
77° 54°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
81° 57°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
76° 62°
±6°
Thu
Light drizzle
79° 67°
±9°
Fri
Cloudy
77° 61°
±11°
Sat
Cloudy
77° 57°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
80° 61°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
84° 67°
±16°
Tue
Light drizzle
78° 63°
±16°
Wed
Drizzle
75° 57°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
75° 55°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
69° 56°
±9°

Middletown, CT is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 26°F), with roughly 53 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Middletown right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Middletown climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
41°
28°
Feb
43°
26°
Mar
50°
32°
Apr
60°
41°
May
69°
49°
Jun
79°
59°
Jul
84°
67°
Aug
79°
63°
Sep
74°
57°
Oct
66°
48°
Nov
52°
36°
Dec
43°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Middletown?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F98±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
78±2.2°F95±1.6 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°76° to 79°±13%24% to 37% chance
Tomorrow±1°70° to 71°±70%18% to 88% chance
Mon±2°76° to 78°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±4°79° to 83°±10%0% to 10% chance
Wed±6°73° to 79°±4%14% to 18% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Middletown

today, local time
Sunrise
06:21
Sunset
19:17
Daylight
12h 56m

Common questions

What's the weather in Middletown today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Middletown today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Middletown today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Middletown and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Middletown?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Middletown (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Middletown?
July is typically the warmest month in Middletown, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Middletown get?
The coldest month in Middletown is February, when overnight lows average about 26°F.
How much rain does Middletown get?
Middletown sees roughly 53 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More US weather