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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°F

Lenexa weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Lenexa's high today between 75° and 80°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 78°, with a 1% chance of rain.

77°56°
78°56°
75°57°
70°58°
75°57°
76°59°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowsplit ±6°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
58°
Mainly clear
Feels 54° · Wind 8 mph · Humidity 73%
AmericanNOAA GFS
52°
Overcast
Feels 49° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 79%
EuropeanECMWF
58°
Partly cloudy
Feels 55° · Wind 7 mph · Humidity 67%

Latest for Lenexa: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 58° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 52° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 58° Partly cloudy.

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Lenexa weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lenexa and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lenexa hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Lenexa 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
77° 56°
±4°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
78° 56°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
75° 57°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
70° 58°
±7°
Wed
Mostly clear
75° 57°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
76° 59°
±6°
Fri
Drizzle
72° 60°
±8°
Sat
Drizzle
67° 58°
±6°
Sun
Light drizzle
71° 52°
±16°
Mon
Drizzle
65° 48°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
60° 45°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
64° 44°
±18°
Thu
Cloudy
64° 50°
±20°

Lenexa is a town of about 52,000 people in Kansas (KS), sitting at 39.0°N in a temperate climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Lenexa with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Overland Park, Merriam, Prairie Village.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

How the weather around Lenexa has changed since 1995

Lenexa sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Olathe. That square ran 1.3°F warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Olathe page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Lenexa?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
97±0.3°F99±0.4 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F94±1.8 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°75° to 80°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±6°75° to 81°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±3°73° to 76°±4%2% to 6% chance
Tue±7°66° to 73°±15%8% to 23% chance
Wed±4°74° to 78°±3%16% to 19% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lenexa

today, local time
Sunrise
07:37
Sunset
18:27
Daylight
10h 50m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lenexa today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Lenexa's high today between 75° and 80°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 78°, with a 1% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Lenexa today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Lenexa on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 1% (NWS 1%, American 1%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 1%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lenexa?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lenexa (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.

Nearby

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