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Dayton weather in numbers
from 30 years of measured normals
Dayton swings 57°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 31°F lows in January, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 54 in of precipitation.
Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
January
31°F average low
Wettest month
February
54 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
January
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, May and October
Residents
7,384
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The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Dayton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Dayton hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Dayton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Dayton, Tennessee (TN) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 31°F), with roughly 54 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Dayton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
47°
31°
Feb
54°
35°
Mar
61°
42°
Apr
69°
50°
May
78°
59°
Jun
86°
66°
Jul
88°
69°
Aug
88°
68°
Sep
82°
62°
Oct
72°
52°
Nov
59°
41°
Dec
50°
34°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Dayton's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.7°F
Around Dayton, 2015-2024 averaged 1.7°F warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2016.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 95°F
3 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
15 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F
Average wind
−2%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >95°F vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.2°F
+14
+10
−1%
1996
−2.6°F
−10
+22
+5%
1997
−1.9°F
−7
−4
−1%
1998
+1.2°F
−3
−18
−1%
1999
+0.1°F
+4
−4
+5%
2000
−0.6°F
−2
+15
+5%
2001
−0.6°F
−9
−4
−1%
2002
+0.1°F
+6
+13
−1%
2003
−1.3°F
−10
+16
−1%
2004
−0.3°F
−10
+5
−1%
2005
−0.1°F
−2
+3
−1%
2006
+0.3°F
+8
+1
+5%
2007
+1.7°F
+14
+1
−1%
2008
−0.6°F
−4
+10
+5%
2009
−1.5°F
−10
+2
−1%
2010
−0.8°F
+17
+19
−1%
2011
+0.1°F
+6
−5
−1%
2012
+1.4°F
+4
−17
−6%
2013
−2.1°F
−9
+17
−1%
2014
−1.9°F
−9
+21
−1%
2015
+0.3°F
−9
−7
−1%
2016
+2.1°F
+19
−0
−1%
2017
+1.4°F
−7
−13
−1%
2018
+0.1°F
−8
−1
−1%
2019
+1.7°F
+12
−16
−1%
2020
+0.6°F
−9
−17
−1%
2021
+0.3°F
−5
−4
−1%
2022
+0.3°F
+0
−0
−1%
2023
+1.5°F
−3
−22
−1%
2024
+2.1°F
+13
−16
−1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Dayton, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in the US?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F
97±1.1 mph
9396% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F
94±2.0 mph
7184% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
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Common questions
What's the weather in Dayton today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Dayton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Dayton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Dayton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dayton?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Dayton forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Dayton?
July is typically the warmest month in Dayton, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Dayton get?
The coldest month in Dayton is January, when overnight lows average about 31°F.
How much rain does Dayton get?
Dayton sees roughly 54 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.
Is Dayton getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Dayton, 2015-2024 averaged 1.7°F warmer than 1995-2004.
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