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CheckWeather USCastle Rock
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Castle Rock weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 88° in Castle Rock today. Tomorrow looks partly cloudy around 88°, with a 75% chance of rain.

88°61°
88°61°
87°63°
85°62°
81°59°
85°59°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±11°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
88°
Light drizzle
Today 88°·Low 62°·Rain 22%
AmericanNOAA GFS
87°
Cloudy
Today 87°·Low 60°·Rain 22%
EuropeanECMWF
88°
Light drizzle
Today 88°·Low 62°·Rain 37%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Castle Rock and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
88° 61°
models agree
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
88° 61°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
87° 63°
±11°
Tue
Light drizzle
85° 62°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
81° 59°
±5°
Thu
Mostly clear
85° 59°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
87° 59°
±5°
Sat
Showers
78° 55°
±9°
Sun
Light drizzle
69° 53°
±15°
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 48°
±12°
Tue
Mostly clear
80° 51°
±8°
Wed
Clear
85° 55°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
87° 59°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
78° 61°
±5°

Castle Rock, CO is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 10°F), with roughly 24 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Castle Rock right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Castle Rock climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
35°
10°
Feb
44°
14°
Mar
47°
20°
Apr
59°
30°
May
68°
40°
Jun
79°
51°
Jul
85°
54°
Aug
84°
56°
Sep
79°
48°
Oct
68°
38°
Nov
49°
23°
Dec
46°
20°

Which forecast is most accurate in Castle Rock?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
81
/100rank #1
84±1.6°F90±3.0 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
64
/100rank #2
81±1.9°F85±4.8 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°87° to 88°±15%22% to 37% chance
Tomorrow±3°87° to 89°±68%7% to 75% chance
Mon±11°81° to 92°±33%45% to 78% chance
Tue±4°83° to 86°±29%33% to 62% chance
Wed±5°80° to 84°±22%27% to 49% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Castle Rock

today, local time
Sunrise
06:31
Sunset
19:24
Daylight
12h 53m

Common questions

What's the weather in Castle Rock today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Castle Rock today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Castle Rock today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Castle Rock and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Castle Rock?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Castle Rock (CheckWeather Score 81/100), ahead of the American at 64. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Castle Rock?
July is typically the warmest month in Castle Rock, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does Castle Rock get?
The coldest month in Castle Rock is January, when overnight lows average about 10°F.
How much rain does Castle Rock get?
Castle Rock sees roughly 24 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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