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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Carrollton weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 99° in Carrollton today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 99°, with a 18% chance of rain.

99°79°
99°81°
100°80°
102°84°
100°83°
101°81°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
99°
Mostly clear
Today 99°·Low 80°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
100°
Partly cloudy
Today 100°·Low 79°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
99°
Clear
Today 99°·Low 79°·Rain 12%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Carrollton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
99° 79°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
99° 81°
models agree
Mon
Clear
100° 80°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
102° 84°
models agree
Wed
Clear
100° 83°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
101° 81°
±6°
Fri
Mostly clear
101° 83°
±5°
Sat
Mostly clear
101° 83°
±5°
Sun
Drizzle
99° 82°
±5°
Mon
Drizzle
94° 77°
±14°
Tue
Light drizzle
87° 75°
±14°
Wed
Cloudy
88° 72°
±10°
Thu
Clear
90° 70°
±8°
Fri
Clear
95° 74°
±7°

Carrollton, TX is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 100°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 37°F), with roughly 52 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Carrollton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Carrollton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
56°
37°
Feb
64°
44°
Mar
70°
51°
Apr
75°
56°
May
83°
66°
Jun
91°
73°
Jul
95°
76°
Aug
100°
80°
Sep
91°
72°
Oct
82°
63°
Nov
67°
50°
Dec
60°
44°

Which forecast is most accurate in Carrollton?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
87±1.3°F95±1.4 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
86
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°99° to 100°±11%1% to 12% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree99° to 99°±16%2% to 18% chance
Mon±2°99° to 102°±19%1% to 20% chance
Tue±4°100° to 104°±11%3% to 14% chance
Wed±3°99° to 102°±6%1% to 7% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Carrollton

today, local time
Sunrise
07:04
Sunset
19:47
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Carrollton today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Carrollton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Carrollton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Carrollton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Carrollton?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Carrollton (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the European at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Carrollton?
August is typically the warmest month in Carrollton, with average highs around 100°F.
How cold does Carrollton get?
The coldest month in Carrollton is January, when overnight lows average about 37°F.
How much rain does Carrollton get?
Carrollton sees roughly 52 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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