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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Bristol weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 76° in Bristol today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 70°, with a 88% chance of rain.

76°61°
70°59°
75°55°
79°58°
75°61°
77°66°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
76°
Light drizzle
Today 76°·Low 61°·Rain 12%
AmericanNOAA GFS
76°
Cloudy
Today 76°·Low 60°·Rain 12%
EuropeanECMWF
75°
Light drizzle
Today 75°·Low 61°·Rain 92%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Bristol and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
76° 61°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
70° 59°
models agree
Mon
Clear
75° 55°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
79° 58°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
75° 61°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
77° 66°
±6°
Fri
Cloudy
75° 60°
±10°
Sat
Cloudy
76° 57°
±10°
Sun
Cloudy
80° 60°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
82° 66°
±17°
Tue
Light drizzle
77° 62°
±17°
Wed
Drizzle
76° 57°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
73° 55°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
69° 56°
±6°

Bristol, CT is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 25°F), with roughly 58 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Bristol right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Bristol climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
40°
27°
Feb
42°
25°
Mar
49°
31°
Apr
60°
40°
May
70°
49°
Jun
79°
58°
Jul
84°
66°
Aug
78°
62°
Sep
73°
56°
Oct
64°
47°
Nov
51°
35°
Dec
42°
29°

Which forecast is most accurate in Bristol?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F97±0.8 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
89±1.1°F96±1.2 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°75° to 76°±80%12% to 92% chance
Tomorrow±1°69° to 70°±66%22% to 88% chance
Mon±2°74° to 76°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°78° to 81°±4%0% to 4% chance
Wed±5°73° to 78°±2%20% to 22% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Bristol

today, local time
Sunrise
06:22
Sunset
19:18
Daylight
12h 56m

Common questions

What's the weather in Bristol today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Bristol today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Bristol today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Bristol and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Bristol?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Bristol (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Bristol?
July is typically the warmest month in Bristol, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Bristol get?
The coldest month in Bristol is February, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Bristol get?
Bristol sees roughly 58 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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