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CheckWeather USNew Haven
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

New Haven weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 76° in New Haven today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 70°, with a 77% chance of rain.

76°64°
70°62°
76°57°
79°61°
77°65°
79°69°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
77°
Light drizzle
Today 77°·Low 63°·Rain 14%
AmericanNOAA GFS
77°
Rain
Today 77°·Low 62°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
75°
Light drizzle
Today 75°·Low 66°·Rain 65%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around New Haven and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
76° 64°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
70° 62°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
76° 57°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
79° 61°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
77° 65°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
79° 69°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
76° 63°
±10°
Sat
Mostly clear
73° 60°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
77° 66°
±6°
Mon
Drizzle
80° 68°
±10°
Tue
Drizzle
75° 64°
±8°
Wed
Drizzle
76° 61°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
72° 59°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
69° 60°
±8°

New Haven, CT is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 27°F), with roughly 55 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for New Haven right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

New Haven climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
43°
30°
Feb
43°
27°
Mar
50°
34°
Apr
59°
42°
May
68°
50°
Jun
77°
60°
Jul
82°
68°
Aug
79°
64°
Sep
74°
59°
Oct
66°
49°
Nov
53°
38°
Dec
44°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in New Haven?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
82
/100rank #1
79±2.1°F96±1.1 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
67
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F93±2.3 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°75° to 77°±51%14% to 65% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree70° to 70°±49%28% to 77% chance
Mon±2°74° to 77°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±2°78° to 80°±8%0% to 8% chance
Wed±4°75° to 79°±3%11% to 14% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in New Haven

today, local time
Sunrise
06:22
Sunset
19:18
Daylight
12h 56m

Common questions

What's the weather in New Haven today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for New Haven today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in New Haven today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for New Haven and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for New Haven?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for New Haven (CheckWeather Score 82/100), ahead of the American at 67. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in New Haven?
July is typically the warmest month in New Haven, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does New Haven get?
The coldest month in New Haven is February, when overnight lows average about 27°F.
How much rain does New Haven get?
New Haven sees roughly 55 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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