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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Aurora weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 59° in Aurora today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 63°, with a 61% chance of rain.

59°45°
63°43°
59°45°
68°41°
67°43°
69°47°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±8°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
51°
Partly cloudy
Feels 44° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 50%
AmericanNOAA GFS
49°
Mainly clear
Feels 42° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 47%
EuropeanECMWF
51°
Clear
Feels 45° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 49%

Latest for Aurora: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 51° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 49° Mainly clear · European (ECMWF): 51° Clear.

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Aurora weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Aurora…

Aurora weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Aurora swings 70°F across the year, from 87°F highs in July to 17°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 16 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 118 days a year at 77°F or above, 62 of them at 86°F or above, 142 frost nights, and rain on 82 days.

Warmest month
July
87°F average high
Coldest month
January
17°F average low
Wettest month
May
16 in a year
Comfortable
2 months
April and October
Residents
359,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
89/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
118 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
142 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
82 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Aurora’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Aurora and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Aurora in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Aurora, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

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Aurora hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Aurora 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
59° 45°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
63° 43°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
59° 45°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
68° 41°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
67° 43°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
69° 47°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
69° 48°
±9°
Sat
Partly cloudy
67° 49°
±5°
Sun
Light snow
60° 45°
±4°
Mon
Light snow
63° 42°
±5°
Tue
Clear
68° 40°
models agree
Wed
Clear
61° 42°
±24°
Thu
Cloudy
61° 41°
±21°

Aurora, Colorado (CO) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 87°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 17°F), with roughly 16 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Aurora right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Aurora climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
38°
17°
Feb
45°
18°
Mar
53°
27°
Apr
61°
34°
May
70°
45°
Jun
82°
56°
Jul
87°
59°
Aug
86°
59°
Sep
79°
50°
Oct
64°
37°
Nov
50°
26°
Dec
43°
21°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Aurora has changed since 1995

Aurora sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Denver. That square ran 0.9°F warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Denver page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Aurora?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F94±1.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #2
89±1.1°F90±3.0 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°58° to 60°±27%6% to 33% chance
Tomorrow±8°60° to 68°±3%58% to 61% chance
Mon±1°59° to 60°±9%57% to 66% chance
Tue±3°66° to 69°±1%1% to 2% chance
Wed±2°66° to 68°models agree2% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Aurora

today, local time
Sunrise
07:19
Sunset
18:07
Daylight
10h 48m

Common questions

What's the weather in Aurora today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 59° in Aurora today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 63°, with a 61% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Aurora today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Aurora on Sunday, October 25: every model gives at least 58% (NWS 61%, American 61%, European 58%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 33%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Aurora?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Aurora (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Aurora?
July is typically the warmest month in Aurora, with average highs around 87°F.
How cold does Aurora get?
The coldest month in Aurora is January, when overnight lows average about 17°F.
How much rain does Aurora get?
Aurora sees roughly 16 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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