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CheckWeather USAlafaya
Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 9°F

Alafaya weather

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Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Alafaya's high today between 89° and 98°, a 9° split. Tomorrow looks showers around 91°, with a 94% chance of rain.

93°77°
91°76°
88°75°
89°75°
90°75°
90°76°
Todaysplit ±9°Tomorrowsplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±7°Tuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±7°Thursdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
89°
Showers
Today 89°·Low 77°·Rain 29%
AmericanNOAA GFS
98°
Cloudy
Today 98°·Low 78°·Rain 29%
EuropeanECMWF
92°
Thunderstorm
Today 92°·Low 77°·Rain 100%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Alafaya and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
93° 77°
±9°
Tomorrow
Showers
91° 76°
±6°
Mon
Showers
88° 75°
±7°
Tue
Showers
89° 75°
±5°
Wed
Showers
90° 75°
±7°
Thu
Heavy drizzle
90° 76°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
90° 78°
±6°
Sat
Drizzle
91° 77°
±7°
Sun
Light drizzle
91° 77°
±7°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
91° 77°
±8°
Tue
Drizzle
90° 76°
±7°
Wed
Thunderstorm
91° 75°
±5°
Thu
Thunderstorm
89° 75°
±7°
Fri
Showers
87° 72°
±6°

Alafaya, FL is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 53°F), with roughly 66 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Alafaya right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Alafaya climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
71°
53°
Feb
76°
55°
Mar
80°
61°
Apr
82°
63°
May
87°
68°
Jun
89°
72°
Jul
91°
75°
Aug
91°
76°
Sep
87°
73°
Oct
82°
68°
Nov
77°
62°
Dec
71°
56°

Which forecast is most accurate in Alafaya?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F96±1.2 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
30
/100rank #2
23±7.7°F84±4.9 mph039% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±9°89° to 98°±71%29% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±6°89° to 95°±63%31% to 94% chance
Mon±7°84° to 91°±23%76% to 99% chance
Tue±5°87° to 92°±3%84% to 87% chance
Wed±7°87° to 94°±8%79% to 87% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Alafaya

today, local time
Sunrise
07:05
Sunset
19:41
Daylight
12h 36m

Common questions

What's the weather in Alafaya today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Alafaya today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Alafaya today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Alafaya and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Alafaya?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Alafaya (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the American at 30. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Alafaya?
July is typically the warmest month in Alafaya, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Alafaya get?
The coldest month in Alafaya is January, when overnight lows average about 53°F.
How much rain does Alafaya get?
Alafaya sees roughly 66 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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