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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Surrey weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 21° in Surrey today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 20°, with a 24% chance of rain.

21°16°
20°12°
22°
24°13°
22°13°
20°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
22°
Light rain
Today 22°·Low 17°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 16°·Rain 31%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Cloudy
Today 21°·Low 15°·Rain 14%
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Surrey weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Surrey weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Surrey swings 20°C across the year, from 22°C highs in June to 2°C lows in January, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 879 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 18 days a year at 25°C or above, 3 of them at 30°C or above, 33 frost nights, and rain on 134 days.

Warmest month
June
22°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
March
879 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Most accurate here
European
87/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
18 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
33 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
134 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Surrey’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Surrey and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Surrey hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Surrey 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
21° 16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
20° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
22°
±3°
Tue
Mostly clear
24° 13°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
22° 13°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 10°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
22° 12°
±3°
Sat
Light drizzle
20° 12°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
23° 11°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
24° 13°
±5°
Tue
Light rain
19° 12°
±4°
Wed
Drizzle
19° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 15°
±4°

Surrey, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 879 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Surrey right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Surrey climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
11°
Apr
13°
May
17°
Jun
22°
11°
Jul
21°
13°
Aug
22°
13°
Sep
20°
12°
Oct
16°
Nov
11°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Surrey?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C98±0.6 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
81
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C97±0.9 mph5877% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #3
81±1.0°C91±3.0 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°21° to 22°±17%14% to 31% chance
Tomorrow±1°19° to 20°±2%22% to 24% chance
Mon±3°21° to 24°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°23° to 26°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±6°19° to 25°±7%0% to 7% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Surrey

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
19:07
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Surrey today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Surrey today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Surrey today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Surrey and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Surrey?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Surrey (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the Met Office at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Surrey?
June is typically the warmest month in Surrey, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Surrey get?
The coldest month in Surrey is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Surrey get?
Surrey sees roughly 879 mm of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More UK weather