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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Stratford-upon-Avon weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Stratford-upon-Avon today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 12°, with a 69% chance of rain.

15°6°
12°8°
16°7°
16°9°
15°8°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
15°
Light rain
Today 15°·Low 7°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Light rain
Today 15°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Light rain
Today 16°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
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Stratford-upon-Avon weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for West Midlands

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Stratford-upon-Avon weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Stratford-upon-Avon swings 20°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 1°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 724 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 16 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 31 frost nights, and rain on 140 days.

Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
724 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
30,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
97/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
16 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
31 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
140 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Stratford-upon-Avon’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Stratford-upon-Avon and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Stratford-upon-Avon hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Stratford-upon-Avon 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
15° 6°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
12° 8°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
16° 7°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
16° 9°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13° 8°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
13° 6°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
12° 6°
±3°
Mon
Partly cloudy
11° 5°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
10° 6°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
9° 3°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
7° 2°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
8° 2°
±4°

Stratford-upon-Avon, England (often shortened to Stratford) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 724 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Stratford-upon-Avon right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Stratford-upon-Avon climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
1°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
13°
5°
May
16°
8°
Jun
20°
10°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
18°
10°
Oct
14°
8°
Nov
10°
4°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Stratford-upon-Avon has changed since 1995

Stratford-upon-Avon sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Cheltenham. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Cheltenham page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Stratford-upon-Avon?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
97±0.2°C98±0.7 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
83
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C96±1.3 mph6581% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #3
88±0.6°C92±2.4 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree12° to 12°±37%32% to 69% chance
Mon±1°16° to 16°±11%89% to 100% chance
Tue±1°16° to 16°±45%55% to 100% chance
Wed±1°14° to 16°±15%18% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Stratford-upon-Avon

today, local time
Sunrise
07:47
Sunset
17:53
Daylight
10h 6m

Common questions

What's the weather in Stratford-upon-Avon today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Stratford-upon-Avon today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 12°, with a 69% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Stratford-upon-Avon today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Stratford-upon-Avon on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 67%, European 32%, American 69%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Stratford-upon-Avon?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Stratford-upon-Avon (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the Met Office at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Stratford-upon-Avon?
August is typically the warmest month in Stratford-upon-Avon, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Stratford-upon-Avon get?
The coldest month in Stratford-upon-Avon is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Stratford-upon-Avon get?
Stratford-upon-Avon sees roughly 724 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

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