Heavy drizzle,rain likely tomorrow
Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 22° in Poulton-le-Fylde today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 18°, with a 94% chance of rain.
Poulton-le-Fylde is a small town of about 20,000 people in England, sitting at 53.8°N in a temperate climate zone. Met Office, European, American each forecast Poulton-le-Fylde with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Fylde, Blackpool, Thornton-Cleveleys.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.