Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Lincoln today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 11°, with a 67% chance of rain.
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Lincoln weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather
Lincoln swings 20°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 1°C lows in February, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 653 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 14 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 31 frost nights, and rain on 140 days.
Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
February
1°C average low
Wettest month
August
653 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and September
Residents
104,000
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Most accurate here
European
97/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
14 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
31 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
140 days
a year with 1 mm or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Lincoln’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Met Office, European, American side by side around Lincoln and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lincoln hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Lincoln 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
15°6°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
11°9°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
16°7°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
16°9°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15°8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
12°6°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
14°8°
models agree
Sat
Light rain
12°7°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
11°6°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
11°6°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
10°6°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
9°2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
8°1°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
9°1°
±3°
Lincoln, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around 1°C), with roughly 653 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Lincoln right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
2°
Feb
7°
1°
Mar
10°
3°
Apr
12°
5°
May
16°
8°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
20°
13°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
18°
10°
Oct
14°
8°
Nov
10°
4°
Dec
7°
3°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Lincoln's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C
Around Lincoln, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2022.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
2 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
13 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.2°C
+13
+14
+3%
1996
−1.3°C
−0
+34
−1%
1997
±0.0°C
+4
+4
−3%
1998
−0.1°C
−4
−4
+7%
1999
+0.2°C
−1
−8
+3%
2000
−0.2°C
−5
−7
+3%
2001
−0.6°C
+2
+18
−3%
2002
+0.2°C
−5
−17
−1%
2003
±0.0°C
+1
+7
−7%
2004
+0.2°C
−3
−4
−1%
2005
+0.2°C
+3
+2
+1%
2006
+0.5°C
+10
+6
−1%
2007
+0.2°C
−7
−13
+1%
2008
−0.3°C
−3
+9
+7%
2009
−0.2°C
−3
+9
−3%
2010
−1.4°C
−5
+45
−11%
2011
+0.4°C
−1
−7
+1%
2012
−0.6°C
−3
−5
−1%
2013
−0.9°C
−1
+28
+1%
2014
+0.6°C
−5
−26
+1%
2015
±0.0°C
−5
−6
+7%
2016
−0.1°C
+1
−1
−5%
2017
+0.2°C
−3
−6
+1%
2018
+0.3°C
+6
−3
−3%
2019
+0.2°C
+1
−9
−3%
2020
+0.4°C
+2
−25
+7%
2021
±0.0°C
+2
+4
−7%
2022
+1.0°C
+12
−13
−3%
2023
+0.9°C
+4
−4
+1%
2024
+0.8°C
+1
−26
−1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Lincoln, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Lincoln?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
99±0.1°C
98±0.7 mph
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office
81
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C
96±1.2 mph
5877% hit
Met Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American
79
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C
91±2.7 mph
5877% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±1°14° to 15°
models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow
±1°11° to 12°
±24%43% to 67% chance
Mon
models agree16° to 16°
±8%92% to 100% chance
Tue
models agree16° to 17°
±16%33% to 49% chance
Wed
±1°14° to 15°
±26%7% to 33% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Lincoln
today, local time
Sunrise
07:45
Sunset
17:46
Daylight
10h 1m
Common questions
What's the weather in Lincoln today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Lincoln today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 11°, with a 67% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Lincoln today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Lincoln on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 67%, European 43%, American 47%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lincoln?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lincoln (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the Met Office at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lincoln?
August is typically the warmest month in Lincoln, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Lincoln get?
The coldest month in Lincoln is February, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Lincoln get?
Lincoln sees roughly 653 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Lincoln getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Lincoln, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004.
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