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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Leighton Buzzard weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Leighton Buzzard today. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 12°, with a 96% chance of rain.

15°6°
12°8°
16°7°
16°9°
14°8°
12°7°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±4°
Met OfficeUKMO model
15°
Rain
Today 15°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Light rain
Today 14°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Rain
Today 15°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
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Leighton Buzzard weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Leighton Buzzard weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Leighton Buzzard swings 20°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 1°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 657 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 15 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 32 frost nights, and rain on 139 days.

Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
657 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
43,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
American
92/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
15 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
32 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
139 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Leighton Buzzard’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Leighton Buzzard and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Leighton Buzzard hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Leighton Buzzard 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
15° 6°
models agree
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
12° 8°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
16° 7°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
16° 9°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
12° 7°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
13° 8°
models agree
Sat
Heavy drizzle
12° 6°
±2°
Sun
Light drizzle
11° 5°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
11° 5°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
11° 6°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
9° 3°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
7° 2°
±2°
Fri
Light drizzle
8° 1°
±5°

Leighton Buzzard, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 657 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Leighton Buzzard right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Leighton Buzzard climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
1°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
12°
5°
May
16°
8°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
21°
12°
Sep
18°
10°
Oct
14°
8°
Nov
10°
4°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Leighton Buzzard has changed since 1995

Leighton Buzzard sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Milton Keynes. That square ran 0.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Milton Keynes page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Leighton Buzzard?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C95±1.7 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
89
/100rank #2
94±0.4°C98±0.6 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
86
/100rank #3
92±0.4°C97±1.0 mph7184% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°14° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°11° to 13°±96%0% to 96% chance
Mon±1°15° to 17°±10%90% to 100% chance
Tuemodels agree15° to 16°±54%46% to 100% chance
Wed±1°14° to 15°±10%0% to 10% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Leighton Buzzard

today, local time
Sunrise
07:42
Sunset
17:49
Daylight
10h 7m

Common questions

What's the weather in Leighton Buzzard today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Leighton Buzzard today. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 12°, with a 96% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Leighton Buzzard today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Leighton Buzzard on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 0%, European 49%, American 96%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Leighton Buzzard?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Leighton Buzzard (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the European at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Leighton Buzzard?
August is typically the warmest month in Leighton Buzzard, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Leighton Buzzard get?
The coldest month in Leighton Buzzard is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Leighton Buzzard get?
Leighton Buzzard sees roughly 657 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

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