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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Lancaster weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 21° in Lancaster today. Tomorrow looks rain around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain.

21°13°
18°14°
15°12°
16°11°
17°12°
16°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
22°
Light rain
Today 22°·Low 14°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Drizzle
Today 21°·Low 12°·Rain 73%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Drizzle
Today 21°·Low 12°·Rain 88%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Lancaster and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
18° 14°
models agree
Tue
Rain
15° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
17° 12°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
16° 13°
models agree
Sat
Light rain
16° 11°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
17° 15°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
18° 14°
±2°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
16° 13°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
16° 11°
±4°
Thu
Drizzle
16° 10°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
15° 10°
±3°

Lancaster, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1881 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Lancaster right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Lancaster climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
16°
Jun
18°
11°
Jul
17°
12°
Aug
17°
13°
Sep
17°
11°
Oct
13°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Lancaster?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C98±0.7 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C93±2.3 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
66
/100rank #3
64±2.0°C95±1.6 mph4771% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°21° to 22°±15%73% to 88% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 19°±31%69% to 100% chance
Tuemodels agree14° to 15°±14%84% to 98% chance
Wed±1°15° to 16°±1%57% to 58% chance
Thu±1°16° to 17°models agree61% to 61% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lancaster

today, local time
Sunrise
06:28
Sunset
19:50
Daylight
13h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lancaster today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Lancaster today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lancaster today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Lancaster and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lancaster?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lancaster (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lancaster?
June is typically the warmest month in Lancaster, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Lancaster get?
The coldest month in Lancaster is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Lancaster get?
Lancaster sees roughly 1881 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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