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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Kesgrave weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Kesgrave today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain.

15°6°
14°8°
16°8°
16°10°
15°8°
13°7°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±4°
Met OfficeUKMO model
15°
Rain
Today 15°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Rain
Today 14°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Rain
Today 16°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
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Kesgrave weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for East of England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for East of England…

Kesgrave weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Kesgrave swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in July to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 626 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 14 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 23 frost nights, and rain on 129 days.

Warmest month
July
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
626 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
11,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
Met Office
89/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
14 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
23 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
129 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Kesgrave’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Kesgrave and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kesgrave hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kesgrave 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
15° 6°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
14° 8°
±4°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
16° 8°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
15° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13° 7°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
13° 9°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
11° 5°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
13° 7°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
12° 5°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
9° 3°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
10° 2°
models agree

Kesgrave, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 626 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Kesgrave right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Kesgrave climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
2°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
10°
4°
Apr
12°
5°
May
16°
8°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
21°
13°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
15°
9°
Nov
10°
5°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Kesgrave has changed since 1995

Kesgrave sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Ipswich. That square ran 0.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Ipswich page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Kesgrave?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
Met Office logo
Met Office ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C97±1.0 mph8290% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
European logo
European
88
/100rank #2
92±0.4°C98±0.7 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
86
/100rank #3
90±0.6°C92±2.4 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°14° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±4°12° to 15°±33%67% to 100% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°±13%87% to 100% chance
Tue±2°15° to 17°±30%37% to 67% chance
Wed±1°14° to 15°±8%0% to 8% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kesgrave

today, local time
Sunrise
07:35
Sunset
17:41
Daylight
10h 6m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kesgrave today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Kesgrave today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kesgrave today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Kesgrave on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 67% (Met Office 67%, European 83%, American 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kesgrave?
Over the last 30 days, the Met Office model has been the most accurate for Kesgrave (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the European at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kesgrave?
July is typically the warmest month in Kesgrave, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Kesgrave get?
The coldest month in Kesgrave is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Kesgrave get?
Kesgrave sees roughly 626 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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